MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1228e636148650d441adc78d51cf82c6413341e60c7687eff7c543757a60a7c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 78c | 1,949$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.78 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 22c | 1,907$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.57 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 34c | 1,182$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.5 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 56c | 1,041$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.38 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 70c | 687.38$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.52 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 681.35$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.45 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 58c | 679$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.82 | 925 | 54.1%500 W · 425 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 45c | 635.69$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.66 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 23c | 635.56$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.01 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 62c | 531.14$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.27 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…bc1cbacked Under | 65c | 443.08$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.08 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 55c | 403.17$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.39 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 25c | 402$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 44c | 342.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.05 | 448 | 45.8%205 W · 243 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 30c | 334.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.16 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 56c | 250$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 77c | 229.22$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Over | 22c | 202$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe426…f4ffbacked Over | 57c | 172.4$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.27 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 37c | 172$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.69 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…a690backed Over | 20c | 151.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 61c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 76c | 147$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 40c | 124.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a96…b71dbacked Over | 23c | 122.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 61c | 121.69$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 2,044 | 39.5%808 W · 1,236 L | -24.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Under | 79c | 121.11$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 68c | 101.47$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 24c | 99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 570 | 58.4%333 W · 237 L | +27.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 57c | 92.98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 57c | 89.47$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 549 | 51.2%281 W · 268 L | +29.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Over | 55c | 81.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed Under | 65c | 72.83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 56c | 70.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Under | 60c | 54.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 21c | 51.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 44c | 51.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…7636backed Over | 26c | 51.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da4…31bfbacked Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 43c | 44.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 33c | 43.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 36c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 60c | 40.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 67c | 39.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 62c | 38.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 67c | 29.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 56c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 895 | 48.3%432 W · 463 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Under | 66c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a4…cf87backed Over | 53c | 25.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 62c | 25.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Under | 65c | 24.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4438…f659backed Under | 66c | 22.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Under | 65c | 21.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Under | 62c | 21.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Under | 62c | 17.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.