MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5f6ccf026431863d6547a0eea88ff57140fe5a60d57da2fbd3b2fc497539a5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3bb9…d2f0backed Under | 64c | 5,469$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,968.75 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 26c | 4,886$1,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,278.33 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 25c | 1,700$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.06 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 36c | 1,088$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.68 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 36c | 886.9$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.28 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 11c | 629$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.14 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 13c | 548.29$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.05 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 382.72$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.97 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 36c | 321.06$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.58 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 36c | 305.56$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 65c | 176.03$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.76 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc670…b781backed Over | 36c | 138.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 64c | 102.35$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 13c | 90.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Under | 64c | 77.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 66c | 74.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Under | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Over | 37c | 55.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec7…4b43backed Over | 40c | 53.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 36c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 73c | 40.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 74c | 34.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a10…2a2ebacked Under | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 46c | 25.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 77c | 22.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 60c | 19.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…7b4cbacked Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -8.9wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under | 74c | 13.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.