TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
New York Metsof Miami Marlins, New York Mets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$295,619
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$291,529

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $295,619 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 300 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked New York Mets55c85,975$47,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,912.521,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins41c39,570$16,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,228.810,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins40c26,470$10,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,616.8411,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Miami Marlins44c16,189$7,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,123.0585645.3%388 W · 468 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+36.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Miami Marlins46c15,667$7,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,266.472,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Miami Marlins45c14,644$6,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,589.741,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Miami Marlins47c12,766$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0001,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Miami Marlins46c10,000$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,599.961,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed New York Mets54c8,440$4,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,882.214,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ad4…6866backed Miami Marlins41c7,800$3,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,19815849.4%78 W · 80 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets55c7,534$4,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,377.348,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins44c7,245$3,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,158.858,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x684b…8409backed Miami Marlins46c6,201$2,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,852.6926054.2%141 W · 119 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Miami Marlins24c5,568$1,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,362.4179442.4%337 W · 457 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8d7…5ac7backed Miami Marlins47c5,524$2,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,589.4420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed New York Mets45c5,145$2,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,829.518248.4%88 W · 94 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed New York Mets53c4,000$2,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8805,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe98c…8792backed New York Mets54c3,843$2,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,760.963557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed New York Mets60c3,196$1,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,268.6460043.3%260 W · 340 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed New York Mets59c3,001$1,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,238.654,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed New York Mets53c2,974$1,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,397.823,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked New York Mets74c2,785$2,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$725.552,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58b9…ee8bbacked Miami Marlins46c2,600$1,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,195.9675248.8%367 W · 385 L-1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x335d…8c00backed Miami Marlins44c2,464$1,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0842962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed New York Mets59c2,430$1,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.562,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa90…c709backed New York Mets54c2,060$1,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947.586256.5%35 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f1c…82c6backed New York Mets51c2,002$1,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980.748950.6%45 W · 44 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc31…971fbacked Miami Marlins48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.9932850.3%165 W · 163 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18e4…e2bbbacked New York Mets53c1,991$1,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.651361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+27.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Miami Marlins41c1,932$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.495045.2%429 W · 521 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins46c1,654$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.786,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked New York Mets59c1,651$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.2769453.6%372 W · 322 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2978…b511backed Miami Marlins33c1,648$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5506936.2%25 W · 44 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-20.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked New York Mets53c1,634$866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$767.9233852.7%178 W · 160 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked New York Mets38c1,595$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$995.259054.4%49 W · 41 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed New York Mets54c1,488$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.4811547%54 W · 61 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Miami Marlins53c1,350$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.51,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd692…8b9abacked Miami Marlins47c1,320$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.630529.8%91 W · 214 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce00…7d1dbacked Miami Marlins8c1,308$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10217952.5%94 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed New York Mets62c1,295$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.691,49958.9%883 W · 616 L+75.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed New York Mets54c1,266$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.369,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed New York Mets53c1,207$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.291,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Miami Marlins44c1,196$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.368648.8%42 W · 44 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed New York Mets55c1,051$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.11850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-7.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cd4…ce48backed Miami Marlins47c1,021$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.093351.5%17 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Miami Marlins6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6044953.7%241 W · 208 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd052…563dbacked Miami Marlins50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8fe…359dbacked Miami Marlins26c999.99$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26412245.9%56 W · 66 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed New York Mets40c973.06$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.191,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x91b8…8e9fbacked New York Mets54c926$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.96425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed New York Mets55c859.32$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.364,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb88a…f6adbacked New York Mets60c855$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34228753.3%153 W · 134 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5633…59bcbacked New York Mets60c855$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34227952%145 W · 134 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaabc…a190backed New York Mets54c833.33$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.334652.2%24 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c6…bc1cbacked Miami Marlins33c724.85$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2404544.4%20 W · 25 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x622e…07abbacked New York Mets54c629.63$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.632733.3%9 W · 18 L-5.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-34.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x16db…ac64backed Miami Marlins24c568.32$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.42828.6%8 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked New York Mets53c567.92$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.921,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets68c550.45$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.3712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Miami Marlins45c540$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.682636.6%302 W · 524 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Miami Marlins45c530.55$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.531,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68cb…0000backed Miami Marlins31c519.48$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.2948660.5%294 W · 192 L+40.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb3bd…6dddbacked New York Mets53c500$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2351330.8%4 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.23per pick54cpaid-37.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5ee0…d6a6backed Miami Marlins62c500$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31011464%73 W · 41 L+12.6wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+23.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5f07…9d0fbacked New York Mets54c499.99$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23027552.4%144 W · 131 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked New York Mets54c486$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.561,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dbb…352fbacked New York Mets37c476.46$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.171947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Miami Marlins47c458.33$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.4248147%226 W · 255 L-31.8wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf636…5465backed New York Mets54c435.78$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.469956.6%56 W · 43 L+8.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd3b5…a2a7backed Miami Marlins46c434.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006942%29 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Miami Marlins45c433.28$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.2155645.3%252 W · 304 L-17.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Miami Marlins27c429.55$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.822,02139.5%798 W · 1,223 L-25.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e73…ac97backed Miami Marlins47c429.09$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011150.5%56 W · 55 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Miami Marlins55c385.28$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.423,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f19…474ebacked Miami Marlins21c380.95$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805354.7%29 W · 24 L+6.2wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+29.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x721e…3439backed New York Mets54c363.63$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.273479.4%27 W · 7 L+7.1wins+0.21per pick58cpaid+41.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x6374…6408backed Miami Marlins21c357.14$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754148.8%20 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Miami Marlins45c350.51$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.1549762.2%309 W · 188 L+38.4wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed New York Mets41c338.78$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.881,07558.3%627 W · 448 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc44e…284abacked Miami Marlins21c334.98$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.646132.8%20 W · 41 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08cd…f35fbacked New York Mets54c333.33$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.332343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-21.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d1d…f2dfbacked Miami Marlins41c328$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.4814943.6%65 W · 84 L-0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc064…6fa8backed Miami Marlins49c320.8$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.118151.9%94 W · 87 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Miami Marlins42c315.28$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.571,12144.1%494 W · 627 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-24.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Miami Marlins7c314.29$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked New York Mets59c303.2$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.221,20558.8%708 W · 497 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa73a…656abacked New York Mets54c300$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13857758.1%335 W · 242 L+28.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2afc…23c9backed Miami Marlins47c300$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1413145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed Miami Marlins45c299.99$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1363450%17 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked New York Mets63c298.08$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.1234658.1%201 W · 145 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x25f7…680bbacked Miami Marlins6c296.13$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.774843.8%21 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed New York Mets54c277.78$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.7834550.7%175 W · 170 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Miami Marlins44c273.28$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.9160348.6%293 W · 310 L-1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb88…0e4cbacked New York Mets55c272.73$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.7310465.4%68 W · 36 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c3e…d412backed Miami Marlins26c269.84$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7017557.1%100 W · 75 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd52…aa25backed Miami Marlins48c263.09$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12528152%146 W · 135 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2465…5d84backed New York Mets78c256$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.81,10079.6%876 W · 224 L+32.7wins+0.03per pick77cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Miami Marlins43c253.18$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.6577752.1%405 W · 372 L+36.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed Miami Marlins21c250$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.54839.6%19 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Miami Marlins21c250$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.511914.3%17 W · 102 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+289.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.