Tennis · resolved market
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Francisco Cerundolo vs Adrian Mannarino
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x980c93177e7648d75155163631deb58d227051aa33e5f6dfbaa0b25d26fe3bb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cerundoloof Cerundolo, Mannarino
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6937…085dbacked Mannarino | 50c | 30,000$15,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,000 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Cerundolo | 50c | 22,004$11,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,002.16 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cerundolo | 60c | 11,872$7,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,706.23 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Mannarino | 41c | 3,022$1,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248.65 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Cerundolo | 50c | 2,934$1,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,479.08 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Cerundolo | 71c | 2,726$1,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.56 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Cerundolo | 52c | 2,071$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.21 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Mannarino | 50c | 2,000$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.87 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Cerundolo | 54c | 1,800$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.04 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62c…1cf4backed Mannarino | 49c | 1,404$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Mannarino | 48c | 1,400$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cerundolo | 51c | 1,309$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Cerundolo | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Cerundolo | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Mannarino | 46c | 962.8$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.48 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Mannarino | 42c | 844$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.62 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Cerundolo | 46c | 800$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Cerundolo | 50c | 658.17$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.1 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…7308backed Mannarino | 50c | 657.54$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Mannarino | 47c | 600$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.6 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Mannarino | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Mannarino | 32c | 591.38$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.25 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Cerundolo | 51c | 510$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.9 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa253…7630backed Mannarino | 49c | 510$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.9 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcd…1722backed Mannarino | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Mannarino | 5c | 476$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Cerundolo | 33c | 454.55$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.55 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d02…edbfbacked Mannarino | 21c | 449.86$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed Mannarino | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…2612backed Mannarino | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Mannarino | 30c | 393.33$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7f…90c5backed Mannarino | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -7.5wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Mannarino | 38c | 254.6$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.7 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Mannarino | 49c | 210$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49c…773ebacked Cerundolo | 41c | 200$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf135…eb06backed Mannarino | 21c | 193.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Mannarino | 53c | 190.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Cerundolo | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Cerundolo | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Mannarino | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1d…f1a8backed Mannarino | 32c | 140$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Cerundolo | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…53d2backed Cerundolo | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Cerundolo | 75c | 110$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a8…db3dbacked Cerundolo | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Mannarino | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41cc…26eabacked Mannarino | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Mannarino | 44c | 91.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Mannarino | 30c | 84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Mannarino | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Cerundolo | 49c | 78.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Mannarino | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Cerundolo | 49c | 63.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Cerundolo | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Cerundolo | 59c | 51.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Mannarino | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…3872backed Mannarino | 53c | 47.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f2…da0ebacked Mannarino | 53c | 43.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…a920backed Cerundolo | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8004…8125backed Mannarino | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Cerundolo | 58c | 38.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…0b72backed Cerundolo | 53c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd891…8d2abacked Cerundolo | 52c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8b…c382backed Cerundolo | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.