Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x983286387ac760697b456f7c0668e9f94e60b31b0bf1a3e68600e904f0c86436
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 33c | 1,498$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.01 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 746.24$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.26 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 33c | 700$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 67c | 447.76$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.76 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 27c | 433.76$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.22 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 355.27$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 32c | 314.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 309.69$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.87 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 33c | 256.9$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.78 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 221.07$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.95 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 33c | 191.33$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.14 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 177$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 73c | 176.88$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.76 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 175.86$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 151.32$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 132.35$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 127.4$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 23c | 125.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 124.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 115.14$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 30c | 110.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 101$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 66c | 97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 71c | 85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 29c | 81.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 72c | 56.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 24c | 55.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48b…136fbacked No | 69c | 41.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 61c | 39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 78c | 38.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 35.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 70c | 29.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed No | 73c | 29.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 29.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 71c | 25.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 67c | 25.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…bc49backed No | 79c | 24.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 73c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3f…bc25backed No | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…5548backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 62c | 16.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…f92fbacked No | 71c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.