Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f7cf1159767100e8bfd70ca324c2922f6a67de3e0ae7f3b6abef233359e3100
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 42c | 1,477$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.17 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 882.4$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 52c | 853.88$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.09 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 65c | 493.3$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.75 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 57c | 477.35$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.36 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 318.66$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.16 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 50c | 280$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.55 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 271$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.89 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 58c | 224$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.92 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 56c | 217.08$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.23 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 45c | 201$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.45 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 57c | 175.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.7 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 65c | 159.27$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.05 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 144.74$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.27 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 142.15$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.17 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 135$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.55 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 132.36$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.94 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 77c | 131.68$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 127.4$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.25 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 45c | 108.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 64c | 93.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…bc49backed Yes | 42c | 81.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.54 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 40c | 80.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.35 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 79.09$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…b929backed Yes | 39c | 77.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.18 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 65c | 77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 36c | 68.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 60c | 67.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 74c | 67.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 40c | 64.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe176…0f99backed Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 60.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 42c | 59.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 46c | 54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 52.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 59c | 45.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 45.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 60c | 45.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 45c | 44.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 48c | 41.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 41.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca4…9ccbbacked No | 46c | 40.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 40c | 40.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 57c | 38.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed No | 58c | 37.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 35.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…02c0backed Yes | 57c | 35.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 33.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…7c21backed No | 58c | 33.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 58c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 46c | 31.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 52c | 31.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 45c | 31.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 43c | 30.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…f92fbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 60c | 29.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 58c | 26.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 60c | 24.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 56c | 21.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 59c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 55c | 18.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked Yes | 54c | 18.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed Yes | 54c | 18.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.