MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x984d5192afc3d1128cbdd1c8aa8b9c87ba36ece994c0f2f7ca385331964dc2fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof New York Mets, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,496
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,496 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 33c | 7,207$2,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,855.76 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees | 69c | 7,017$4,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,866.99 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked New York Yankees | 62c | 5,968$3,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,700 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees | 56c | 2,741$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,539.99 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed New York Mets | 31c | 1,654$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,141.75 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed New York Mets | 33c | 1,059$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.76 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked New York Yankees | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed New York Mets | 65c | 790.37$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.26 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked New York Yankees | 69c | 599$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.31 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Yankees | 70c | 499.99$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.99 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees | 69c | 429$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.1 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed New York Mets | 32c | 347.03$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.33 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked New York Mets | 30c | 250$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | -9.9wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed New York Mets | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets | 46c | 152$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.91 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees | 58c | 121.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.74 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed New York Mets | 32c | 106.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.32 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked New York Yankees | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked New York Mets | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.99 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked New York Mets | 32c | 89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.52 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked New York Yankees | 69c | 64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked New York Mets | 35c | 62.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed New York Yankees | 76c | 56.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…e4a2backed New York Mets | 34c | 52.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9883…1d31backed New York Mets | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed New York Mets | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed New York Yankees | 70c | 47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed New York Yankees | 70c | 47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed New York Mets | 30c | 46.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…6bc6backed New York Mets | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked New York Yankees | 76c | 43.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed New York Mets | 29c | 43.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed New York Yankees | 68c | 41.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…19e5backed New York Mets | 34c | 40.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Yankees | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed New York Mets | 36c | 39.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32f7…f399backed New York Yankees | 74c | 36.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Yankees | 58c | 36.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked New York Mets | 34c | 32.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked New York Yankees | 68c | 32.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…6610backed New York Yankees | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.