MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb3018a0934d4b6f10679b962c58f450933a2d17d602c9752c1bd3d76b9c0080
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Over | 45c | 4,068$1,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,247.78 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Under | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 50c | 2,864$1,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,432 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Over | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.96 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 68c | 1,629$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.28 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 32c | 1,629$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.28 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 62c | 1,151$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.67 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 37c | 866.08$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.84 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 50c | 762.68$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.34 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 45c | 723.66$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.2 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 33c | 717.9$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.52 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Over | 75c | 533.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 56c | 392.25$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.24 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 50c | 240$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 38c | 204.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.89 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 62c | 202.95$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.12 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 32c | 196.86$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 59c | 172.98$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.73 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 41c | 155.09$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.19 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Over | 77c | 147.59$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 29c | 130.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 58c | 123$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6afa…e227backed Under | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 43c | 114.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf16…b409backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 37c | 97.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Under | 50c | 93.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Under | 62c | 92.19$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.16 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | -9.9wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Over | 79c | 87.43$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…eadebacked Under | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 50c | 71.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 50c | 66.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Under | 25c | 49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 74c | 44.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 47c | 44.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 48c | 39.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 51c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 49c | 30.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Over | 76c | 30.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Over | 77c | 30.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Over | 78c | 30.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8499…950dbacked Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 52c | 25.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Over | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 51c | 20.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x89ab…89acbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c38…291fbacked Over | 79c | 18.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…28b8backed Over | 74c | 15.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.