MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c4a5da00e358f52aff02940cbd768d24dee44a89c64dba8f906bcce6db8fc8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof New York Yankees, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,970
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets | 75c | 13,802$10,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,456.61 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 25c | 13,070$3,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,202.55 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets | 59c | 2,792$1,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.05 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed New York Yankees | 38c | 2,277$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.26 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked New York Yankees | 40c | 1,414$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.75 | 172 | 48.8%84 W · 88 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed New York Yankees | 42c | 1,200$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d57…18ddbacked New York Yankees | 48c | 960.38$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.98 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees | 42c | 849.78$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.22 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed New York Yankees | 40c | 800$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked New York Mets | 50c | 714.52$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.05 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed New York Mets | 58c | 600$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked New York Mets | 59c | 600$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.2 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed New York Yankees | 43c | 523.26$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 165 | 43%71 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Yankees | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed New York Yankees | 41c | 365.85$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets | 65c | 355.08$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.54 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c6…d14dbacked New York Yankees | 40c | 324$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed New York Yankees | 41c | 229.65$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.16 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets | 60c | 225$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.1 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed New York Yankees | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed New York Mets | 60c | 170$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked New York Mets | 61c | 170$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed New York Yankees | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked New York Yankees | 40c | 142.17$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked New York Yankees | 23c | 140$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cce…2ff1backed New York Yankees | 40c | 101.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked New York Yankees | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc79…6b98backed New York Yankees | 40c | 99.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked New York Yankees | 14c | 76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked New York Yankees | 26c | 73.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked New York Yankees | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…5749backed New York Yankees | 41c | 66.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed New York Yankees | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed New York Yankees | 41c | 51.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed New York Yankees | 40c | 51.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…bce9backed New York Yankees | 44c | 50.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed New York Yankees | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked New York Yankees | 26c | 48.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed New York Mets | 59c | 47.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Yankees | 43c | 46.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…4ee3backed New York Mets | 61c | 42.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed New York Yankees | 25c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed New York Yankees | 26c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees | 31c | 38.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…0f05backed New York Mets | 59c | 30.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked New York Mets | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb21…3138backed New York Yankees | 41c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cec…7c61backed New York Yankees | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf2…fa7bbacked New York Mets | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.