Asian League · resolved market
Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Najmah Saudi Club: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9894b6f7ff79d546d07e4f414e28062319585e3c4bba5f18e5b75676d4c817f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,257 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Under | 63c | 1,586$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.57 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…c1f1backed Over | 36c | 544.91$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.17 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -5.9wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…271abacked Over | 40c | 464$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed Under | 60c | 464$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5955…f86ebacked Over | 42c | 453.09$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 39c | 377$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.03 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Over | 11c | 364.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 12c | 339.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfd…ff86backed Under | 58c | 266.71$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…1616backed Over | 40c | 195$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…cf21backed Under | 58c | 186.38$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 45c | 171.11$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 55c | 158.11$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 38c | 106$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb7…618ebacked Over | 46c | 84.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Under | 60c | 68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed Under | 60c | 67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe46c…8526backed Under | 63c | 63.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Over | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Over | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Over | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b63…bb9cbacked Under | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Over | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9379…f116backed Over | 23c | 47.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…0af4backed Over | 45c | 42.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…856cbacked Over | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 47c | 32.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Over | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 53c | 25.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 65c | 23.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 721 | 44.1%318 W · 403 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Najmah Saudi Club: O/U 4.5this page
- Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Najmah Saudi Club: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Najmah Saudi Club: O/U 1.5Over won
- Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Najmah Saudi Club: O/U 2.5Over won
- Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Najmah Saudi Club: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Al Hilal Saudi Club (-1.5)Al Hilal Saudi Club won
- Spread: Al Hilal Saudi Club (-2.5)Al Hilal Saudi Club won
- Spread: Al Najmah Saudi Club (-1.5)Al Hilal Saudi Club won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.