MLB · resolved market
Tigers vs. Blue Jays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98ae5412fafb401d60dde468aed96b229c542f93df879585d93a80a35465ac23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tigersof Tigers, Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,087
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,087 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Blue Jays | 21c | 8,107$1,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,732.73 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x788b…e13ebacked Tigers | 70c | 7,166$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,166.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Blue Jays | 34c | 4,110$1,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,390.23 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Blue Jays | 54c | 4,000$2,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,159.99 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Tigers | 64c | 1,564$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.52 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Tigers | 46c | 1,291$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.3 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Blue Jays | 38c | 1,219$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.28 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…2b6bbacked Blue Jays | 53c | 1,011$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.83 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc1…4534backed Tigers | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Tigers | 67c | 924.9$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.22 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Tigers | 46c | 916.91$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.13 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Blue Jays | 32c | 801.75$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Tigers | 46c | 717.25$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.22 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Blue Jays | 46c | 692.33$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.05 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Blue Jays | 44c | 620.36$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.01 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Tigers | 47c | 599.98$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.99 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Blue Jays | 36c | 571.24$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.37 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Tigers | 47c | 500.06$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.46 | 204 | 50.5%103 W · 101 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Tigers | 64c | 468.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.75 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdc…0771backed Blue Jays | 31c | 457.24$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363d…fe75backed Tigers | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | -13.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Blue Jays | 38c | 406.34$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.85 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Tigers | 52c | 394.67$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.09 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Blue Jays | 33c | 385.29$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.15 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Blue Jays | 54c | 367.2$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.29 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Tigers | 49c | 351.41$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.22 | 308 | 42.9%132 W · 176 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Tigers | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.15 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked Tigers | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Tigers | 73c | 288$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.61 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Blue Jays | 54c | 286.6$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.76 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefaf…26a1backed Tigers | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 239 | 38.5%92 W · 147 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8095…97b6backed Tigers | 51c | 237.25$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Tigers | 47c | 231.96$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.1 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Tigers | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Blue Jays | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Tigers | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed Tigers | 59c | 191.98$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.11 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Blue Jays | 53c | 188.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.16 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2a…1e46backed Tigers | 47c | 170.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.21 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd428…92d8backed Tigers | 65c | 146.89$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.41 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Blue Jays | 34c | 141.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked Blue Jays | 38c | 109.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 177 | 32.8%58 W · 119 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6f…0142backed Tigers | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…4e9cbacked Tigers | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb254…8935backed Tigers | 61c | 103.83$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…f563backed Tigers | 35c | 100.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.85 | 258 | 35.3%91 W · 167 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c7…6e5fbacked Blue Jays | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…278fbacked Tigers | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…8938backed Blue Jays | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa346…738fbacked Tigers | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a4…7602backed Tigers | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ee…1e9ebacked Blue Jays | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…ecc4backed Tigers | 46c | 97.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Tigers | 47c | 95.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Tigers | 47c | 93.62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.62 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Tigers | 49c | 93.51$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 193 | 56.5%109 W · 84 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Blue Jays | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Tigers | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 203 | 67%136 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Blue Jays | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x946b…5857backed Tigers | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9f…3b4bbacked Blue Jays | 54c | 55.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Tigers | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Tigers | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Blue Jays | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee57…33a7backed Tigers | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe79b…0fe0backed Tigers | 47c | 48.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Tigers | 64c | 47.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1a…3186backed Tigers | 79c | 46.94$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5080…610bbacked Tigers | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a93…adb8backed Tigers | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…8316backed Tigers | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a62…118abacked Tigers | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…8885backed Tigers | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c4…934fbacked Tigers | 63c | 38.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Blue Jays | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Blue Jays | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Blue Jays | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Tigers | 48c | 32.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a92…65ecbacked Tigers | 67c | 32.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Tigers | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 238 | 52.9%126 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Blue Jays | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa544…2d66backed Tigers | 45c | 28.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.