NFL · resolved market
Will the Bills beat the Broncos by 9 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98ae9b1a8637d56f54d1282606a9ebb9546079b7f07a88c2e171f4bf7b95a8b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Billsof Bills, Broncos
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Broncos | 55c | 6,020$3,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,313.8 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bills | 45c | 5,372$2,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,954.81 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…c3d6backed Bills | 45c | 2,400$1,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,328 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Broncos | 54c | 2,127$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.67 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Broncos | 57c | 1,909$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Bills | 46c | 1,905$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.93 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Bills | 74c | 1,777$1,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.15 | 293 | 56%164 W · 129 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Broncos | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 330 | 47.9%158 W · 172 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…d494backed Bills | 50c | 980$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3275…e7fcbacked Broncos | 56c | 891.23$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Bills | 40c | 503.33$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…dc7cbacked Bills | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…5a07backed Broncos | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…3ef8backed Broncos | 47c | 401.89$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.89 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Bills | 47c | 255$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.15 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd49…bfa4backed Bills | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bills | 48c | 249.98$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.99 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x340f…3cf5backed Bills | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8769…48ecbacked Bills | 52c | 168.76$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.76 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Broncos | 47c | 138.52$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.49 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Broncos | 56c | 138$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.28 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -12.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…5455backed Broncos | 52c | 125$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb7…1132backed Broncos | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…717dbacked Broncos | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Broncos | 48c | 93.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ed…7aeabacked Bills | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d83…63d2backed Broncos | 50c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeedd…93adbacked Bills | 50c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23b4…7659backed Bills | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 49cpaid | +106.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacf5…18debacked Broncos | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6f…6b82backed Broncos | 53c | 29.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…5d3cbacked Broncos | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e34…d00cbacked Broncos | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed Bills | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d22…d41dbacked Bills | 49c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b1…7053backed Broncos | 51c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcec…85c4backed Bills | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb93…92ecbacked Broncos | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb45…78f7backed Bills | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Bills | 47c | 21.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb90a…6365backed Broncos | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7808…b0cabacked Bills | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ff…38a5backed Bills | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x987b…9c90backed Broncos | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e9…9f4ebacked Bills | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dba…c816backed Bills | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bills beat the Broncos by 9 or more points?this page
- Will the Bills and Broncos combine for 48 or more points?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.