Tweets · resolved market
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98c59ec7a770077787a2b29b9cd2c81e9f7dee1a55ccc80fba2897899df0efcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 42c | 606.27$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.73 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 54c | 249.84$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.63 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 69c | 203.44$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.54 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 59c | 164.55$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.67 | 336 | 70.2%236 W · 100 L | +22.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 136$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…85afbacked No | 72c | 68.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 183 | 57.9%106 W · 77 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…26ffbacked No | 62c | 61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dae…0590backed Yes | 51c | 53.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 47c | 49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 42.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 30c | 37.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 61c | 36.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c33…f910backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 48c | 32.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed No | 62c | 29.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 52c | 27.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 43c | 23.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 79 | 30.4%24 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf301…b2a6backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…3e2bbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 62c | 18.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 62c | 16.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?this page
- Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
- Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.