Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-01-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98cb4d681eae6804968bc2b21bbbb75ca725874dd371300d379ebdfa1fefb5b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $136,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 8c | 28,367$2,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,285.12 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 23c | 9,683$2,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,221.31 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…7d67backed No | 37c | 6,237$2,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,319.23 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64aa…1dc7backed Yes | 66c | 6,200$4,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,128.44 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.34per pick | 55cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 19c | 4,786$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.88 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55a1…db28backed Yes | 64c | 4,113$2,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,480.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 8c | 3,701$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,406.27 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Yes | 7c | 2,486$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,311.98 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,869.94 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 34c | 1,943$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.49 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed No | 38c | 1,500$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 7c | 1,500$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,395 | 173 | 29.5%51 W · 122 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 7c | 1,084$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.48 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 7c | 718$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.59 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 16c | 698.11$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.39 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 7c | 643.25$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.54 | 231 | 51.5%119 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2107…8f4cbacked Yes | 63c | 600$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 35c | 595.93$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.45 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6310…0d90backed Yes | 71c | 562.35$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c00…4b34backed No | 15c | 549.85$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 7c | 522.82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.31 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 21c | 475.42$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Yes | 64c | 468.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed No | 22c | 350.95$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e73…e5c1backed Yes | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c22…70a0backed No | 18c | 285.05$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 6c | 249.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c6…367dbacked No | 37c | 226.32$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.74 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.29 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…958dbacked Yes | 65c | 210.77$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.77 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf828…fca3backed Yes | 6c | 188.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1e…c162backed Yes | 65c | 180.37$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.13 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 61c | 177.29$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.97 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Yes | 7c | 166.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.54 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed No | 27c | 161.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 37c | 159.46$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…5737backed Yes | 65c | 155.56$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.5 | 130 | 16.2%21 W · 109 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 106 | 43.4%46 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb4…f28cbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 7cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed No | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…b87ebacked No | 41c | 103.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7089…9160backed Yes | 29c | 102.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae7…cf61backed Yes | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…8479backed No | 14c | 83.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b23…9b23backed No | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…2c1fbacked Yes | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c9…eac8backed Yes | 65c | 60.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed No | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed No | 19c | 52.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…1e05backed No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 76c | 45.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 183 | 60.7%111 W · 72 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 79c | 44.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed No | 37c | 40.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa296…ab9ebacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…3d44backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a3…56d0backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b41…5cc3backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96f1…b6d8backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c13…e7febacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 71c | 24.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…22c4backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Nantes win on 2026-01-04?this page
- Will Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Nantes end in a draw?No won
- Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-01-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.