Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98cd97fe54dae6e3b2a0ce9803b92af8f480200e6e7e38fa3e273e2e0e295609
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof Team Falcons, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7373…3964backed Team Falcons | 56c | 9,392$5,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,263.76 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed MOUZ | 25c | 6,327$1,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,756.83 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Team Falcons | 73c | 5,645$4,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,140.8 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed MOUZ | 33c | 4,461$1,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,969.78 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked MOUZ | 36c | 4,195$1,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,670.39 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…3934backed MOUZ | 45c | 3,949$1,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,183.05 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f33…63c8backed MOUZ | 44c | 2,272$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked MOUZ | 45c | 2,037$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Team Falcons | 74c | 1,884$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.9 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked MOUZ | 17c | 1,500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked MOUZ | 46c | 1,257$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.52 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed MOUZ | 23c | 1,200$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed MOUZ | 17c | 1,035$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.86 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Team Falcons | 55c | 901.68$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed MOUZ | 20c | 732$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.6 | 91 | 26.4%24 W · 67 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed MOUZ | 17c | 684.17$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.74 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed MOUZ | 22c | 547.72$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.47 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…0710backed Team Falcons | 80c | 523.16$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.56 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6a…56d6backed Team Falcons | 77c | 492.75$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.53 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x151f…807dbacked Team Falcons | 63c | 470$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.28 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed MOUZ | 18c | 450.16$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.23 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed MOUZ | 16c | 277$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.7 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x384a…06fabacked Team Falcons | 80c | 250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x910e…29bcbacked Team Falcons | 60c | 249.99$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.99 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd750…494dbacked Team Falcons | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…3202backed Team Falcons | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Team Falcons | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Team Falcons | 55c | 140.39$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.21 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -5.7wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked MOUZ | 31c | 140.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.49 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…79ffbacked MOUZ | 25c | 129.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.7 | 280 | 50%140 W · 140 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1249…90bdbacked Team Falcons | 59c | 104.88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed MOUZ | 22c | 102$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed MOUZ | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb91…8700backed Team Falcons | 80c | 95$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5b…62c7backed Team Falcons | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed Team Falcons | 80c | 70$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aaf…749dbacked Team Falcons | 70c | 66.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…fc1fbacked Team Falcons | 57c | 65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…59a5backed Team Falcons | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed MOUZ | 25c | 48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd6…3d85backed MOUZ | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Team Falcons | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf938…1249backed Team Falcons | 79c | 36.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 173 | 60.7%105 W · 68 L | -13.6wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Team Falcons | 68c | 29.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac0…9784backed Team Falcons | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.