Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Freiburg vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98d2ffaf0591b0f01cf1de52e43b90c03cd216fa12d66899f13374ac041901ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,970
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 63c | 9,321$5,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,841.87 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked Yes | 35c | 8,664$3,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,629.49 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2567…fc9dbacked Yes | 63c | 793.65$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 54c | 727.37$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.16 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3946…b565backed No | 55c | 727.27$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 36c | 723.12$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.14 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc674…dcd2backed Yes | 56c | 588.3$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Yes | 63c | 476.19$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.19 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 36c | 354.39$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.39 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 37c | 319.98$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.39 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 37c | 318.82$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.96 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 36c | 313.33$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Yes | 64c | 308.95$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.22 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd19…3fb8backed No | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 41c | 278.36$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.87 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 36c | 253$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.44 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…749dbacked No | 21c | 239.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…f949backed Yes | 63c | 238.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.1 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 79c | 234.76$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe20b…3ae4backed Yes | 64c | 234.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Yes | 48c | 204.17$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.17 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…fc48backed Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd99…c06cbacked Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 44c | 147.43$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.87 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1301…2cf7backed Yes | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b68…0060backed Yes | 63c | 101$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5258…534ebacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x806a…62d7backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3696…69cebacked Yes | 58c | 98.58$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 57 | 71.9%41 W · 16 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 39c | 88.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 37c | 88.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38bb…2fcfbacked Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Yes | 63c | 78.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +8.6wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbaca…49e6backed Yes | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…5ac0backed Yes | 62c | 64.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d76…6fd4backed Yes | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked No | 36c | 62.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Yes | 43c | 61.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 37c | 60.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed No | 65c | 60.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed No | 49c | 52.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Yes | 62c | 49.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…a64ebacked Yes | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a4…e797backed Yes | 55c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed No | 69c | 44.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…dc9bbacked Yes | 60c | 43.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 27c | 41.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…c8ccbacked Yes | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e66…9c1ebacked Yes | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked No | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 37c | 35.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3d…f1eabacked No | 39c | 33.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fb…c51bbacked Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…e4a3backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…256cbacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3110…c3f5backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…829fbacked No | 56c | 26.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0f…98d0backed Yes | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f1…2c1cbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Freiburg vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- SC Freiburg vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5Under won
- SC Freiburg vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- SC Freiburg vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.