TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

SC Freiburg vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$47,148
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$46,483

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,148 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Under57c8,935$5,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,872.2548141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under56c4,320$2,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,896.713,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over31c3,195$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.273036.7%11 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe706…89bcbacked Over38c3,009$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,141.9211843.2%51 W · 67 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0def…4ddbbacked Over49c2,300$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1272450%12 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked Over31c2,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6204839.6%19 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over54c1,722$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.9810041%41 W · 59 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Under45c1,509$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826.3415742%66 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over61c1,322$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8004447.7%21 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Over42c1,125$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.51546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over50c1,051$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.564040%16 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66d4…fe2dbacked Over49c999.99$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under66c974.4$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.4564043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x61e8…b283backed Over47c959.99$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.230%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under41c925.29$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54569851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b75…433bbacked Over60c837.03$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002548%12 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Under39c739.45$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.8527138.4%104 W · 167 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Over44c700$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30510554.3%57 W · 48 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed Over46c653.49$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3022951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over18c616.54$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.9848658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under60c609.32$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.392,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe77f…8793backed Over37c594.86$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x47c7…cac7backed Under40c584$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.42853.6%15 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under40c579.28$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.4733047.3%156 W · 174 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under38c506.61$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.691,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e8c…79bdbacked Over61c457.96$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.522853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid+6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Under40c418$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.815747.1%74 W · 83 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd91a…211cbacked Over41c410.12$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1685024%12 W · 38 L-5.3wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-27.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf38c…d9f2backed Over44c404.99$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.211748.7%57 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9769…7cd7backed Over48c399.98$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.991838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+47.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe5c4…89cfbacked Over15c385.13$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under72c379.87$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.474751.1%24 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Over41c366.1$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1509856.1%55 W · 43 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31d4…5c13backed Over15c333.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+60.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5ff1…c554backed Over61c311.48$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+56%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over59c310$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.91450%7 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Over49c298.15$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.096921.7%15 W · 54 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-39%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over39c282.01$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.671,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9691…c6e7backed Under50c280$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1401838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6013…3348backed Over35c280$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9830%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd76…b935backed Over37c269.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.94254.8%23 W · 19 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+38.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under37c268.35$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.0649647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed Under41c243.88$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.8910246.1%47 W · 55 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over55c218.99$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.4518759.4%111 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7066…50e5backed Over49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cc4…5a94backed Under43c200$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc11…c87bbacked Over59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1181145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa494…4a1fbacked Under40c181.92$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.154650%23 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55ab…40e8backed Over29c173.69$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+116.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e68…16c7backed Over59c166.1$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc10d…e679backed Under39c164.59$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.41838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under40c156.72$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.0342046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under39c150$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9116846.4%78 W · 90 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over18c150$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2711060%66 W · 44 L+13.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+26%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe626…92b5backed Under53c149.45$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.63275%24 W · 8 L+8.1wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+51.9%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xf692…dd55backed Under74c135.61$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.61862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Under40c130$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.94057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+22.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x505a…bb61backed Over40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8582…959fbacked Over48c104.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+53%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b5c…e5aabacked Over44c104.16$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8320%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Over34c102.91$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5914755.8%82 W · 65 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7946…387fbacked Over30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Over49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4938845.6%177 W · 211 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Under38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624641.3%19 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00f7…4476backed Under39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+27.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68d1…f166backed Over20c97.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+133.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad9e…53c2backed Over60c96.67$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3322…7dc2backed Over22c90.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Over33c89.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.617455.4%41 W · 33 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3bcd…1a94backed Over59c84.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506058.3%35 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x014c…38ccbacked Over59c84.32$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.754969.4%34 W · 15 L+8.6wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+48.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Over58c82.56$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.893158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed Over18c75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.56355.6%35 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x15db…1da8backed Over41c73.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Over30c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.710956%61 W · 48 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75fc…0a4cbacked Over19c55.68$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.58175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.17per pick23cpaid-86%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4060…e63cbacked Over55c54.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Under39c51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.118647.7%41 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd119…28abbacked Over59c50.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over29c50.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5833737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3548…0ebbbacked Over60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Over58c44.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.317456.9%99 W · 75 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d9a…c3acbacked Under50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-36.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dd3…dc9bbacked Over50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8816…7082backed Over50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205347.2%25 W · 28 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under41c39.04$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2328755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41b1…b470backed Over40c37.63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fb0…20b4backed Over48c37.62$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.02633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-37.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x923a…e723backed Under54c37.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.22366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+39.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd443…5f71backed Under38c37$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.943259.4%19 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d50…d283backed Under56c35.84$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.854339.5%17 W · 26 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under42c35.71$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.717254.2%39 W · 33 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x488e…ea2ebacked Over39c34.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.72450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9fb…c51bbacked Over58c34.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203961.5%24 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6769…f8b9backed Over59c33.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202277.3%17 W · 5 L+4.7wins+0.21per pick56cpaid+40.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x604e…f1cdbacked Over60c33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.82065%13 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3110…c3f5backed Over61c32.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203366.7%22 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e0a…8521backed Under57c32.33$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1179…ab20backed Over62c32.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202060%12 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27ff…d0dfbacked Over61c32.18$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.53450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.