Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Freiburg vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb34277c5e269bb3823a3085058c6447bb51f5f77226cbba90d04a2314e9db39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 37c | 10,547$3,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,928.25 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 63c | 9,102$5,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,406.24 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 6,065$3,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,108.48 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 67c | 3,803$2,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,254.92 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 22c | 3,116$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.47 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b75…433bbacked Over | 38c | 2,633$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 33c | 2,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 62c | 1,669$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.55 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 39c | 1,295$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…5c13backed Over | 8c | 1,294$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 62c | 833.67$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.67 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 63c | 780.78$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.61 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 63c | 678.09$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.89 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 39c | 510.42$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Over | 30c | 502.37$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.71 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…df21backed Over | 28c | 440.86$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.8 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 76c | 437.14$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.53 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 62c | 400.01$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 37c | 399.99$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.99 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 72c | 296.33$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.97 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 63c | 274.32$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.44 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Over | 6c | 235.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 62c | 221$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.16 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 74c | 206.47$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.47 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 63c | 158.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.72 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked Over | 35c | 143.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Over | 36c | 138.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +8.6wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 63c | 130$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 68c | 102.2$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 147 | 55.8%82 W · 65 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 64c | 102.03$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 64c | 83.1$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 36c | 83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed Under | 63c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dca…a234backed Over | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 62c | 58.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…b24abacked Under | 63c | 49.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…974ebacked Over | 40c | 49.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +62%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x659f…04e4backed Under | 64c | 48.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a4…d8b4backed Under | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee5…bc7bbacked Under | 63c | 47.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 70c | 46.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…9f36backed Under | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Under | 63c | 36.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…70dfbacked Over | 30c | 33.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Under | 63c | 31.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Under | 64c | 28.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…642bbacked Over | 35c | 28.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 63c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 65c | 26.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8453…76bfbacked Under | 63c | 26.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcb…207cbacked Under | 64c | 25.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d49…7cc0backed Under | 63c | 23.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +35%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 63c | 23.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Under | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -6.2wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d4…523cbacked Under | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Under | 63c | 19.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Freiburg vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5this page
- SC Freiburg vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Freiburg vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5Under won
- SC Freiburg vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.