Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Freiburg vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x975651f94eb10ee55b5f25ee09bb4f3449edaea6803d379b4148f70ff236dcd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a92…6941backed Over | 51c | 18,791$9,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,152.12 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +9.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 13,816$7,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,271.64 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 41c | 8,329$3,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,444.43 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 3,755$1,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,673.93 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e3…78f3backed Over | 76c | 2,419$1,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 17c | 1,891$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.33 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 67c | 1,490$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.7 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 40c | 1,425$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.72 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Over | 49c | 1,172$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.7 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 43c | 1,128$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.91 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf706…f685backed Over | 43c | 935.79$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.79 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 39c | 883.33$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.5 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Over | 50c | 872.79$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.79 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 44c | 840.88$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.37 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab5…2663backed Over | 48c | 833.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 56c | 714.38$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.38 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x488e…ea2ebacked Over | 61c | 687$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 37c | 611$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.07 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…6ea4backed Over | 49c | 513.15$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.15 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51af…8720backed Under | 18c | 500$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.3 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89f9…b9c5backed Over | 48c | 477.2$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Over | 67c | 403.99$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.32 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 52c | 326.92$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.92 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9769…7cd7backed Over | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66f0…1229backed Over | 58c | 265$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…5c13backed Over | 42c | 238.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.45 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…095ebacked Over | 45c | 220$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Over | 47c | 212.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.88 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa203…11bcbacked Under | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 55c | 192.77$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.57 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…40e8backed Over | 56c | 184.43$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +116.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 51c | 166.19$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.48 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 45c | 140$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…4d3ebacked Under | 59c | 113.89$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.24 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 37c | 103.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 19c | 103.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 44c | 101.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 147 | 55.8%82 W · 65 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…41c1backed Under | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +79%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 17c | 96.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 43c | 89.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x210e…59f5backed Over | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…5ea8backed Over | 51c | 70.59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…e84dbacked Over | 68c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Over | 44c | 65.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 56c | 65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7d…9b6cbacked Over | 78c | 64.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 58c | 62.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 60c | 60.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…c33bbacked Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 56c | 48.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Under | 28c | 44.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 49c | 41.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under | 60c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 43c | 39.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0f…e047backed Over | 49c | 36.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a4…6f3abacked Under | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 58c | 34.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9132…6607backed Under | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…f7aebacked Over | 80c | 33.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…3235backed Over | 70c | 31.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6b…2f6abacked Over | 62c | 28.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4acf…1179backed Over | 43c | 25.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…b24abacked Under | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf7…3412backed Under | 60c | 23.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…32bcbacked Over | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 94 | 68.1%64 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff5f…b2e2backed Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf138…8bb3backed Over | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d49…7cc0backed Under | 58c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +35%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…e166backed Over | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48c2…2effbacked Over | 67c | 16.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…70dfbacked Over | 74c | 14.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Freiburg vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5this page
- SC Freiburg vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Freiburg vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5Under won
- SC Freiburg vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- SC Freiburg vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.