Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Runa Team - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99088089daaf2c89336eab02a0e8d3f3c8d1f0d2724b0c6dd33e6a4947fc1d34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Runa Teamof Team Liquid, Runa Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06c0…e618backed Team Liquid | 72c | 3,517$2,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,532.32 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…41edbacked Runa Team | 28c | 3,382$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,434.76 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Liquid | 26c | 3,359$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.42 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Runa Team | 65c | 2,943$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.58 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Runa Team | 69c | 2,113$1,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.61 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Runa Team | 78c | 1,262$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.54 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Runa Team | 30c | 924.43$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.43 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Liquid | 23c | 875.65$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.35 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb07…0769backed Team Liquid | 8c | 800$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Team Liquid | 72c | 695.71$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.91 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…a603backed Team Liquid | 68c | 671.07$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.33 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Team Liquid | 57c | 600$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa0…fbbdbacked Team Liquid | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab0…2fe9backed Runa Team | 77c | 466.34$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.84 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 62cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…60e1backed Team Liquid | 19c | 400$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked Team Liquid | 18c | 320.82$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Team Liquid | 27c | 299.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.99 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Runa Team | 52c | 279.88$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.28 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Team Liquid | 72c | 276.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.5 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…964dbacked Team Liquid | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa4…71c5backed Team Liquid | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Runa Team | 25c | 141$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Runa Team | 28c | 115.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.37 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Runa Team | 23c | 106.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Team Liquid | 23c | 105.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Team Liquid | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…ea96backed Runa Team | 35c | 99.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.53 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…1765backed Team Liquid | 69c | 91.03$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.81 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…1969backed Team Liquid | 75c | 46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad7…f012backed Team Liquid | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x521c…64d2backed Team Liquid | 75c | 31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e10…e039backed Team Liquid | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Team Liquid | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 393 | 51.1%201 W · 192 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…88cfbacked Team Liquid | 75c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34b2…cec2backed Team Liquid | 75c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5253…b898backed Team Liquid | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Runa Team - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Runa Team (BO3)Runa Team won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Runa Team - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.