NHL · resolved market
Spread: Capitals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x992e06179668fa2e8d96f0416c29469183b88e893486c583754e5e83d0bb1998
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Canucksof Capitals, Canucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Canucks | 62c | 1,306$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.28 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8c…93cdbacked Capitals | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Canucks | 62c | 700$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Canucks | 61c | 682.02$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.99 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Capitals | 36c | 402.89$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.04 | 617 | 48.5%299 W · 318 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Capitals | 39c | 400$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Canucks | 62c | 399$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.39 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Capitals | 38c | 395.66$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.35 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…61bbbacked Capitals | 39c | 386.92$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 412 | 48.3%199 W · 213 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Capitals | 38c | 382$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.61 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Canucks | 64c | 375.08$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.08 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Capitals | 39c | 357.69$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.5 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Canucks | 62c | 345.69$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.26 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Capitals | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Canucks | 61c | 250$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 237 | 51.5%122 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Capitals | 38c | 243.18$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.41 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Capitals | 37c | 242.86$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.86 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Capitals | 37c | 195.26$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.25 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e82…7670backed Capitals | 39c | 192.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Capitals | 37c | 180.04$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.61 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…813ebacked Capitals | 36c | 138.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Canucks | 63c | 126.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Canucks | 62c | 95.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Capitals | 33c | 90.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 279 | 52%145 W · 134 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Canucks | 65c | 78.77$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Capitals | 38c | 70.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f6…6a9bbacked Canucks | 64c | 62.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Capitals | 38c | 61.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Canucks | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 278 | 51.1%142 W · 136 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Canucks | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bee…aa9ebacked Canucks | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Canucks | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 524 | 51%267 W · 257 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056e…7e19backed Capitals | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Capitals | 39c | 46.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 210 | 42.4%89 W · 121 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Capitals | 37c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Canucks | 63c | 33.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…4d2cbacked Canucks | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Canucks | 39c | 29.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Capitals | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 135 | 57.8%78 W · 57 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)this page
- Capitals vs. CanucksCanucks won
- Capitals vs. Canucks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Canucks: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.