CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs TDK - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x995da2cacde6f373dbf71941b7d9f7e8e2f09806f30da544632f33feb207a247
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TDKof fnatic, TDK
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked fnatic | 60c | 4,993$3,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,001.25 | 1,513 | 57.2%865 W · 648 L | +65.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed fnatic | 61c | 3,561$2,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,183.37 | 1,088 | 54.2%590 W · 498 L | +39.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked TDK | 36c | 2,310$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,469.36 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked TDK | 38c | 2,195$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,364.41 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc68…f899backed TDK | 43c | 957$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.02 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed TDK | 57c | 850$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.1 | 1,485 | 58%862 W · 623 L | +66.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed TDK | 42c | 523.54$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.06 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…51dbbacked TDK | 44c | 514.2$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.2 | 401 | 48.4%194 W · 207 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked TDK | 43c | 510.12$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.07 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed fnatic | 53c | 496$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.9 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed TDK | 29c | 442.93$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.18 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed TDK | 38c | 421.33$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.23 | 1,676 | 51.1%857 W · 819 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked fnatic | 56c | 409.2$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.15 | 558 | 43.5%243 W · 315 L | -16.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed fnatic | 60c | 336.84$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.36 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked fnatic | 55c | 324.99$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.67 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8037…04fabacked TDK | 53c | 301.21$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.57 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -9.2wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb963…3fa0backed TDK | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 500 | 43%215 W · 285 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed fnatic | 47c | 294.94$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.62 | 529 | 51.4%272 W · 257 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0c…1249backed TDK | 55c | 252.88$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.02 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca97…f3cebacked fnatic | 50c | 234$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddbd…bcb5backed TDK | 23c | 213.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.63 | 167 | 20.4%34 W · 133 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked TDK | 39c | 195$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.95 | 318 | 45.3%144 W · 174 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaf…f5d1backed TDK | 58c | 131$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.02 | 610 | 34.3%209 W · 401 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9227…7cedbacked TDK | 31c | 124.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.73 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…e505backed fnatic | 57c | 122.6$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.28 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked TDK | 49c | 117.61$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.98 | 2,776 | 37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L | -140.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa103…db38backed fnatic | 40c | 117.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcc…e8ccbacked TDK | 21c | 103$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 154 | 41.6%64 W · 90 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked TDK | 25c | 93.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.55 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed TDK | 27c | 92.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.32 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…8796backed fnatic | 64c | 87.94$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 282 | 54.6%154 W · 128 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed TDK | 50c | 83.8$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked fnatic | 70c | 83.33$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x461c…f74bbacked TDK | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 201 | 45.8%92 W · 109 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked TDK | 44c | 67.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6219…72dabacked TDK | 59c | 67.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe275…2450backed fnatic | 42c | 67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x984c…e508backed TDK | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked fnatic | 61c | 56.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed fnatic | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 182 | 33%60 W · 122 L | -22.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed TDK | 35c | 49.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 340 | 36.5%124 W · 216 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe80c…f3e6backed TDK | 46c | 34.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 419 | 38.9%163 W · 256 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde7f…d8dbbacked TDK | 60c | 31.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 207 | 44%91 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed TDK | 35c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdb00…fda1backed fnatic | 64c | 27.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 411 | 47.7%196 W · 215 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: fnatic vs TDK - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: fnatic vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Playoffsfnatic won
- Counter-Strike: fnatic vs TDK - Map 2 Winnerfnatic won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs fnatic (+1.5)fnatic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.