Premier League · resolved market
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9972fa6a3dc8accfc061eec5bfbf846964e1ee69bf89b19833d0c276cfd0b49e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 16c | 2,102$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,774.86 | 4,696 | 41.7%1,957 W · 2,739 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 8c | 1,304$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,203.34 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 16c | 764.57$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.24 | 1,615 | 34.9%564 W · 1,051 L | -28.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 43c | 637.38$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.09 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6eb…bc82backed Under | 3c | 600$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e7…3f3fbacked Under | 56c | 522.47$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.06 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 60cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 8c | 399.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 16c | 368.24$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.16 | 6,047 | 45.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L | -21.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 15c | 300.61$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.11 | 953 | 32.5%310 W · 643 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Over | 22c | 216.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.98 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 16c | 213.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.9 | 740 | 56.9%421 W · 319 L | +46.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 55c | 161.51$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.67 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xded4…1e6dbacked Under | 59c | 153.24$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 17c | 139.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.98 | 144 | 31.9%46 W · 98 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…8f93backed Under | 13c | 116.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 45c | 88.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 611 | 43.7%267 W · 344 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 54c | 73.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 100 | 54%54 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9413…bc8cbacked Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 44c | 44.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 35c | 32.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 406 | 55.2%224 W · 182 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Over | 45c | 25.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Burnley FC (-1.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.