Premier League · resolved market
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7004bf795961bf71eaada699bc8a37406dd60ea1b3327846c5539ae12fab324
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 78c | 4,212$3,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.19 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 22c | 3,780$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.38 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 69c | 1,018$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.04 | 306 | 45.8%140 W · 166 L | -11.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 21c | 912.61$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.65 | 1,012 | 33.2%336 W · 676 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 28c | 861.12$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.11 | 768 | 42.6%327 W · 441 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 24c | 584.33$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.07 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0d…cce6backed Over | 69c | 426.7$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.28 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…9953backed Under | 54c | 277.95$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.39 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 20c | 273.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…32bcbacked Over | 72c | 260.36$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 26c | 233.16$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.59 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 46c | 210.35$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.59 | 222 | 42.8%95 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbd…4f8bbacked Over | 74c | 199.55$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 74c | 197.79$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…4108backed Under | 53c | 183.36$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc5…eb41backed Over | 56c | 173.86$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Over | 80c | 148.2$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 74c | 133.03$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 82 | 59.8%49 W · 33 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 80c | 128.44$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 300 | 59.7%179 W · 121 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d47…3d24backed Over | 79c | 124.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Under | 26c | 117.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 171 | 53.8%92 W · 79 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…e84dbacked Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…0852backed Over | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 71c | 98.26$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 596 | 45.5%271 W · 325 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Under | 22c | 97.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 452 | 24.8%112 W · 340 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83d…43e6backed Over | 73c | 90.04$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b08…aaf4backed Over | 80c | 79.6$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -8.6wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 26c | 77.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 614 | 41.2%253 W · 361 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 28c | 64.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 54c | 54.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…995ebacked Under | 26c | 47.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b19…6759backed Under | 23c | 47.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Over | 78c | 41.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Over | 72c | 31.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 42c | 25.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 746 | 44.8%334 W · 412 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Over | 59c | 23.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 79c | 19.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Burnley FC (-1.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.