Mls · resolved market
Will San Diego FC vs. FC Dallas end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9997474bc797fb95c8c6a4c1f4adbfc07807d95aa4df972d268b9fcdb8ca3642
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 17c | 13,884$2,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,343.37 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Yes | 26c | 7,133$1,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,854.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 29c | 3,870$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.6 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Yes | 1c | 1,110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 75c | 865.01$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.25 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf958…31b3backed Yes | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 76c | 716.67$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.92 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 76c | 647.64$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.43 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90aa…00f1backed Yes | 30c | 400.17$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed No | 75c | 270$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 5c | 240.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Yes | 24c | 237.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.94 | 143 | 49%70 W · 73 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 25c | 235$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.39 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Yes | 24c | 219.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.59 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…86d3backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…f368backed Yes | 20c | 184.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 31c | 171.32$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 24c | 151.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…ed53backed No | 71c | 150.28$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…b109backed No | 75c | 139$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 70cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…0b6ebacked Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Yes | 19c | 124.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 69c | 122.06$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 13c | 118$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc9…616dbacked Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 161 | 59.6%96 W · 65 L | +18.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Yes | 19c | 96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8509…fd97backed Yes | 24c | 94.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 25c | 85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 19c | 83.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked No | 80c | 76$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4438…f659backed Yes | 24c | 74.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc973…5d47backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Yes | 24c | 47.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 77c | 45.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 27c | 43.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa7…eccfbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b4…f911backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df7…7f76backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 72c | 39.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +12.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed No | 77c | 38.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 75c | 37.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 76c | 32.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 80c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f5…8ad6backed No | 76c | 27.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked No | 69c | 20.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed No | 69c | 15.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will San Diego FC vs. FC Dallas end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Dallas win on 2026-07-25?No won
- Will San Diego FC win on 2026-07-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.