Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99ac830d0ddee2ab51c1aef4cd83994980189a410eb32f03ef44c098f5845052
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aston Villa FCof Newcastle United FC, Aston Villa FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Aston Villa FC | 76c | 21,926$16,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,229.83 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…eef4backed Newcastle United FC | 24c | 15,640$3,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,753.6 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Newcastle United FC | 24c | 8,291$1,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,989.87 | 257 | 52.1%134 W · 123 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Aston Villa FC | 76c | 3,299$2,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.57 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Aston Villa FC | 76c | 2,522$1,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.43 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Newcastle United FC | 24c | 2,026$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.3 | 330 | 57%188 W · 142 L | +17.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Newcastle United FC | 25c | 997.6$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 354 | 28.5%101 W · 253 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Newcastle United FC | 22c | 962.36$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.33 | 141 | 28.4%40 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb77e…e668backed Newcastle United FC | 24c | 833.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Newcastle United FC | 23c | 800$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 91 | 34.1%31 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Newcastle United FC | 25c | 612.92$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.34 | 222 | 29.3%65 W · 157 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa5…4f56backed Aston Villa FC | 76c | 431.43$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.54 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Aston Villa FC | 76c | 394.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 157 | 57.3%90 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Aston Villa FC | 76c | 373$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.52 | 212 | 53.8%114 W · 98 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Aston Villa FC | 76c | 338.16$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.31 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Aston Villa FC | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 300 | 59.7%179 W · 121 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Aston Villa FC | 77c | 250$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Newcastle United FC | 24c | 244.89$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Newcastle United FC | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 272 | 27.9%76 W · 196 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Newcastle United FC | 23c | 195.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Aston Villa FC | 76c | 144$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Aston Villa FC | 76c | 140.76$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 337 | 53.1%179 W · 158 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Aston Villa FC | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x096b…8eafbacked Aston Villa FC | 78c | 110$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…67b2backed Newcastle United FC | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 117 | 36.8%43 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…3896backed Newcastle United FC | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8f…386cbacked Aston Villa FC | 76c | 101.32$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 67cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Newcastle United FC | 24c | 99.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 524 | 54.2%284 W · 240 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Aston Villa FC | 76c | 96.67$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…37d8backed Aston Villa FC | 76c | 88.8$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Newcastle United FC | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 269 | 59.9%161 W · 108 L | +13.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…af22backed Aston Villa FC | 76c | 69.66$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Aston Villa FC | 76c | 63.21$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 390 | 52.6%205 W · 185 L | +19.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Aston Villa FC | 76c | 38.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 721 | 42.7%308 W · 413 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Aston Villa FC | 76c | 32.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 114 | 60.5%69 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Aston Villa FC | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9063…3cc8backed Aston Villa FC | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa15…95e3backed Aston Villa FC | 76c | 26.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…e4a3backed Aston Villa FC | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…9325backed Aston Villa FC | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…f162backed Aston Villa FC | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a06…fcd4backed Aston Villa FC | 76c | 22.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Aston Villa FC | 78c | 21.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 426 | 58%247 W · 179 L | +24.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Aston Villa FC | 76c | 20.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…ed2bbacked Aston Villa FC | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Aston Villa FC | 77c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)this page
- Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.