Premier League · resolved market
Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x863cc7b842b4cbab9c6a20d297b17886cf544c9478e9514c0231f10006635157
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 19,610$8,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,815.18 | 6,217 | 45.6%2,834 W · 3,383 L | -33.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 38c | 7,330$2,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,573.6 | 4,874 | 41.5%2,021 W · 2,853 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 31c | 7,042$2,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,160.32 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5677…2ce9backed Over | 65c | 6,077$3,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,145.48 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc5…a45bbacked Under | 12c | 1,780$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.33 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…c01dbacked Over | 64c | 1,692$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.2 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 61c | 1,646$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 19c | 1,500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…5018backed Over | 74c | 1,351$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.35 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 18c | 1,025$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.34 | 2,606 | 47.7%1,242 W · 1,364 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed Over | 63c | 793.65$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.65 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Under | 21c | 638.22$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.81 | 141 | 28.4%40 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 63c | 476.19$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.19 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 306 | 45.8%140 W · 166 L | -11.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 78c | 320.51$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.51 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…984ebacked Over | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99a…388ebacked Over | 80c | 299.65$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.93 | 25 | 92%23 W · 2 L | +8.7wins | +0.35per pick | 57cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Over | 72c | 279.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.71 | 90 | 67.8%61 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 64c | 218.75$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 171 | 61.4%105 W · 66 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 32c | 207.34$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 1,943 | 42.5%826 W · 1,117 L | -41.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Over | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 158 | 41.1%65 W · 93 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dde…2c06backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…132abacked Over | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -12.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Over | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Over | 80c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea0…8f49backed Over | 78c | 102.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…b44dbacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…ff88backed Under | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 59c | 86.07$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 64c | 85.94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 206 | 44.7%92 W · 114 L | -10.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c1…a5adbacked Over | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0f…6715backed Over | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…d66abacked Over | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 77c | 64.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 286 | 54.2%155 W · 131 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cba…c616backed Over | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…4aebbacked Over | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 72cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 50.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee2…035dbacked Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 257 | 50.2%129 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 53c | 37.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 54c | 37.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…d45ebacked Over | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 48c | 29.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -7.3wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 37c | 27.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…3673backed Under | 51c | 25.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 76c | 21.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7de…4d6dbacked Over | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 41 | 75.6%31 W · 10 L | +6.4wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…fabcbacked Over | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 52 | 80.8%42 W · 10 L | +13.0wins | +0.25per pick | 56cpaid | +57%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.