Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 16°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99e4834b50ec3e2f4999c69390b992f78c8f410f2ba09921372c2b3a28907d91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 5c | 848.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 41c | 401.66$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 77c | 340.01$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.22 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 47c | 316.27$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.17 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 9c | 238.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 39c | 206.96$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.08 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 195.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 61c | 154.86$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.87 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 71c | 138.45$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.97 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 18c | 106.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…b928backed Yes | 38c | 100.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 50c | 99.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.33 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c03…aa91backed Yes | 42c | 97.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…717ebacked No | 24c | 96.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.83 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea7…e13fbacked Yes | 57c | 87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 53c | 75.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 31c | 65.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1009…3c2bbacked Yes | 31c | 64.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.2wins | -0.35per pick | 69cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 48c | 62.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 25c | 61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 60.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.75 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 43c | 57.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 51c | 57.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 23c | 54.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 45c | 45.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed Yes | 45c | 45.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 35c | 43.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 47c | 42.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 77c | 40.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 37c | 33.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 60c | 28.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 47c | 27.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 57c | 27.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 43c | 26.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 59c | 26.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 67c | 24.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed Yes | 64c | 23.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb677…257fbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 53c | 19.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 74c | 18.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 72c | 14.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 16°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 17°C on May 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C or higher on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.