Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 17°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b18d260527902f08273c4e6da9606a4a5fa00a2cdaeca88cd2a2bc6d1d18ba7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,661
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,661 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e66…52f5backed No | 23c | 2,241$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.55 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 39c | 334.46$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.49 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…717ebacked Yes | 25c | 333.45$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.84 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 13c | 229.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 25c | 193.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.17 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87bd…9712backed Yes | 17c | 172.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.75 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 45c | 157$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.02 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 57c | 155.63$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.16 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…1ca6backed Yes | 14c | 141.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.33 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +12.8wins | +0.32per pick | 38cpaid | +122%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…15a2backed Yes | 25c | 136$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.45 | 81 | 7.4%6 W · 75 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 70c | 129.3$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.79 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 45c | 117.74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.29 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 34c | 117.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.13 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…80aabacked Yes | 17c | 116.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.74 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +13.2wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 111.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 37c | 103.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.95 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 48c | 103.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.35 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 21c | 102.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…c1fbbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.25 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.1 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 99.4$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.39 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 42c | 90.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed Yes | 29c | 85.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…3622backed Yes | 55c | 83.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 38c | 80.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 79.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.93 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 19c | 78.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 66c | 75.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 16c | 74.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 18c | 73.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 72$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 61c | 64.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 25c | 60.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 53c | 58.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c9ebacked Yes | 29c | 56.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 32c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 53.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 49.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 73c | 49.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…9c8cbacked Yes | 25c | 43.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 46c | 31.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 34c | 30.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615f…5f37backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 70c | 28.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 61c | 27.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed Yes | 47c | 27.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 49c | 27.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 55c | 27.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 64c | 25.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5659backed Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca5e…4a1cbacked Yes | 61c | 24.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 21.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb677…257fbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 62c | 18.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 61c | 17.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 17.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 65c | 15.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 71c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 17°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 16°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C or higher on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.