Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99fa88060a039cd592126c4f0ddd2d4c8435e02702c8c08d6a5fabff024765f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 657.99$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 384.56$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.22 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 286.02$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 217.28$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.74 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 197.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 194$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.8 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 48c | 189.94$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.67 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 39c | 154.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 58c | 153.18$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.41 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 147.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 72c | 105.55$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 36c | 97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 90.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed No | 76c | 83.11$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 64c | 79.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f2…da8bbacked Yes | 34c | 73.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcff…8528backed Yes | 39c | 69.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 56.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 25c | 56.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 55.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 37c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…c908backed Yes | 44c | 52.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 73c | 52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 61c | 44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 39c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 40.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e3…7d5dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 61c | 37.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 58c | 37.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 41c | 33.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b61…e426backed Yes | 37c | 32.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 70c | 32.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 39c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2af3…bcb4backed Yes | 37c | 29.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 29.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 68c | 29.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 53c | 28.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 72c | 27.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 27.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 53c | 23.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 61c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 21.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 64c | 16.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e2…9177backed No | 69c | 16.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 79c | 13.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.81 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.