Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x772f41671e68dbc6df4ae26dfa963ebb220d387e45e8e0f199aae00186928318
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 55c | 853.19$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.12 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 56c | 808.28$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.68 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 2c | 462.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 41c | 418.64$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.04 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 348.09$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.05 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 311.36$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.67 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 249.8$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.15 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 36c | 200$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.58 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 30c | 187.93$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 32c | 185.13$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.09 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 32c | 164.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 25c | 163.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…14ccbacked Yes | 26c | 153.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.88 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 152.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.93 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 58c | 150.22$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 37c | 130.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.89 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 58c | 123$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.98 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 116.82$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 47c | 104$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 21c | 97.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.55 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 88$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 60c | 76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 42c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebd…61f9backed Yes | 18c | 71.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 35c | 63.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 80c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 33c | 59.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 64c | 59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…6922backed No | 36c | 54.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 69c | 53.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 26c | 50.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 71c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 49.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 64c | 46.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 62c | 43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48b5…3300backed Yes | 28c | 41.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 48c | 38.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 68c | 35.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 75c | 34.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 49c | 33.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 67c | 30.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 64c | 29.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 53c | 27.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 45c | 25.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…3ee3backed No | 73c | 23.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 46c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad43…1427backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 80c | 19.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2af3…bcb4backed No | 69c | 17.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 70c | 16.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4969…805fbacked Yes | 67c | 16.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.