Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1166decf476da976be80fac78265240643d11b433f120c2d097f523819e09a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 27c | 586$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.82 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 33c | 405.74$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.31 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 14c | 344.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 249.8$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.76 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 186.69$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 182.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 176.82$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 40c | 151$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.87 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 135$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 76c | 130.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 26c | 130.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 62c | 129.39$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.71 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 124.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 121$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 120.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 71c | 120.08$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 42c | 118$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 113.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 27c | 88.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 88.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 45c | 86.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ff…b951backed Yes | 34c | 84.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 78.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 27c | 73.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 15c | 73.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 77c | 60.78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 60.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 72c | 60.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 60c | 58.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcff…8528backed No | 75c | 57.73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 31c | 55.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 53.87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 60c | 52.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 34c | 43.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 31c | 41.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48b5…3300backed Yes | 33c | 41.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 69c | 39.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 62c | 39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Yes | 33c | 33.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…cb7cbacked No | 62c | 33.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 31.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 56c | 31.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc030…1398backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 51c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 37c | 29.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 74c | 27.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 60c | 25.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 65c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 70c | 19.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 72c | 16.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 16.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked No | 65c | 15.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 70c | 14.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.