Premier League · resolved market
Chelsea FC vs. Port Vale FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a131d29b31f216e54929c4b68072ac6af60e4738bd9f3973fc25db7f4e0108b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 12c | 6,164$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 12c | 1,426$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.24 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 12c | 1,420$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.15 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 20c | 1,079$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.33 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 77c | 1,005$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.1 | 1,220 | 49.8%607 W · 613 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 12c | 436.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Under | 22c | 328$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 9c | 296.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 77c | 260$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 300 | 59.7%179 W · 121 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e3…242cbacked Under | 7c | 188.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 15c | 170.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 80c | 160.09$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 78c | 157.35$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 300 | 57%171 W · 129 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 78c | 130.61$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 758 | 50%379 W · 379 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…5eb8backed Under | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 23c | 119.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 23c | 117.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5d…adc4backed Under | 15c | 113.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b52…22cbbacked Under | 17c | 101.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…5ac3backed Under | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Under | 23c | 81.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Under | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Over | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 127 | 44.1%56 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd421…8531backed Under | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 23c | 48.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Under | 22c | 47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 101 | 12.9%13 W · 88 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1968…8c66backed Over | 80c | 37.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x231f…254bbacked Over | 80c | 37.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 80c | 37.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 137 | 48.9%67 W · 70 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 80c | 37.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…37e6backed Over | 79c | 36.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Over | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Over | 78c | 27.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 221 | 46.2%102 W · 119 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc205…eec2backed Over | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chelsea FC vs. Port Vale FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Chelsea FC vs. Port Vale FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Chelsea FC vs. Port Vale FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Chelsea FC vs. Port Vale FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Chelsea FC vs. Port Vale FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)Chelsea FC won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)Chelsea FC won
- Spread: Port Vale FC (-1.5)Chelsea FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.