CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a1bd3a458dfab3b7e30c5e6f9b2dc4a38fe70c59f41631f2a66504a79db1559
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ex-RUBYof CYBERSHOKE Esports, ex-RUBY
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf424…9723backed ex-RUBY | 52c | 4,674$2,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,253.09 | 211 | 35.5%75 W · 136 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8e…ce7dbacked CYBERSHOKE Esports | 64c | 4,035$2,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,585.07 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…cd14backed CYBERSHOKE Esports | 2c | 3,600$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa927…8d9fbacked CYBERSHOKE Esports | 48c | 3,067$1,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,464.93 | 345 | 59.1%204 W · 141 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed ex-RUBY | 51c | 2,303$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.49 | 435 | 44.6%194 W · 241 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x240b…c32abacked ex-RUBY | 65c | 2,158$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.28 | 145 | 43.4%63 W · 82 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed CYBERSHOKE Esports | 4c | 1,456$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.03 | 424 | 27.1%115 W · 309 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc564…e89dbacked ex-RUBY | 69c | 1,400$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…387ebacked ex-RUBY | 58c | 781$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.02 | 291 | 54%157 W · 134 L | +17.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked ex-RUBY | 70c | 749.99$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.68 | 3,236 | 51.2%1,657 W · 1,579 L | +88.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed CYBERSHOKE Esports | 35c | 523$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.36 | 2,474 | 24.7%611 W · 1,863 L | -316.9wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…3e23backed ex-RUBY | 50c | 460$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.15 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a70…0519backed ex-RUBY | 33c | 413.35$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.61 | 388 | 35.6%138 W · 250 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed CYBERSHOKE Esports | 20c | 354.4$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.11 | 780 | 43.7%341 W · 439 L | -21.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed ex-RUBY | 69c | 350.98$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.08 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed ex-RUBY | 57c | 300$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 498 | 43%214 W · 284 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ee…663bbacked ex-RUBY | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed CYBERSHOKE Esports | 34c | 269.85$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.88 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f0…971ebacked CYBERSHOKE Esports | 55c | 260.62$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.06 | 316 | 47.8%151 W · 165 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31c0…91f1backed ex-RUBY | 56c | 256.2$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.2 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed CYBERSHOKE Esports | 56c | 255.6$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.9 | 4,238 | 49.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L | +60.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ex-RUBY | 57c | 251.98$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.35 | 5,580 | 47.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L | +47.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…3c1abacked CYBERSHOKE Esports | 16c | 247.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed CYBERSHOKE Esports | 16c | 245.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 967 | 43.5%421 W · 546 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed ex-RUBY | 65c | 244$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.88 | 264 | 75%198 W · 66 L | +24.2wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked ex-RUBY | 53c | 227.48$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.39 | 3,544 | 29.3%1,037 W · 2,507 L | -289.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed CYBERSHOKE Esports | 45c | 220$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 454 | 39.6%180 W · 274 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb888…b15bbacked CYBERSHOKE Esports | 28c | 200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0580…f78bbacked ex-RUBY | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 79 | 20.3%16 W · 63 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…d10dbacked CYBERSHOKE Esports | 52c | 181.79$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 530 | 34.7%184 W · 346 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24f5…98d2backed CYBERSHOKE Esports | 48c | 180$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.72 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed CYBERSHOKE Esports | 10c | 180$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,283 | 22%282 W · 1,001 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65eb…e197backed ex-RUBY | 57c | 172.91$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.43 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd976…7636backed ex-RUBY | 61c | 164.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.43 | 111 | 55%61 W · 50 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked CYBERSHOKE Esports | 47c | 142.49$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.89 | 4,754 | 43.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L | -85.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…af95backed CYBERSHOKE Esports | 64c | 142.19$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 242 | 56.6%137 W · 105 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked CYBERSHOKE Esports | 29c | 127.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 627 | 38.8%243 W · 384 L | -31.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked CYBERSHOKE Esports | 38c | 127.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 5,034 | 37.2%1,874 W · 3,160 L | -260.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed ex-RUBY | 59c | 118$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 2,393 | 46.7%1,118 W · 1,275 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…f04ebacked CYBERSHOKE Esports | 48c | 108$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…eb73backed ex-RUBY | 51c | 102.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.18 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed CYBERSHOKE Esports | 31c | 76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 414 | 36.7%152 W · 262 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed CYBERSHOKE Esports | 16c | 72.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc620…7a70backed ex-RUBY | 44c | 71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 155 | 40%62 W · 93 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed ex-RUBY | 45c | 70.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 679 | 51.4%349 W · 330 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked ex-RUBY | 57c | 68.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 7,990 | 50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L | +180.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe83…82a8backed CYBERSHOKE Esports | 66c | 64.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 107 | 75.7%81 W · 26 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked ex-RUBY | 62c | 63.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 602 | 32.4%195 W · 407 L | -49.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed ex-RUBY | 58c | 61.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 184 | 32.6%60 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8e…8e0dbacked ex-RUBY | 65c | 57.59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 504 | 58.5%295 W · 209 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked CYBERSHOKE Esports | 53c | 56.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 531 | 45.4%241 W · 290 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed ex-RUBY | 75c | 56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 152 | 77.6%118 W · 34 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a00…d958backed CYBERSHOKE Esports | 53c | 55.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 316 | 62.7%198 W · 118 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked ex-RUBY | 54c | 54.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 2,397 | 42.7%1,023 W · 1,374 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed ex-RUBY | 62c | 53.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 4,099 | 51%2,091 W · 2,008 L | +74.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bee…e55cbacked ex-RUBY | 35c | 51.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 204 | 57.8%118 W · 86 L | -11.0wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed ex-RUBY | 59c | 51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 640 | 46.3%296 W · 344 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…d72abacked ex-RUBY | 39c | 48.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 265 | 46.8%124 W · 141 L | -18.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked ex-RUBY | 62c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 3,949 | 36.5%1,443 W · 2,506 L | -201.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…436cbacked ex-RUBY | 58c | 46.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 76 | 68.4%52 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…b170backed CYBERSHOKE Esports | 40c | 42.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 114 | 42.1%48 W · 66 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed CYBERSHOKE Esports | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 579 | 35.1%203 W · 376 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca2…088ebacked CYBERSHOKE Esports | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb084…be70backed CYBERSHOKE Esports | 33c | 38.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked ex-RUBY | 65c | 38.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 2,530 | 34.6%876 W · 1,654 L | -193.6wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed CYBERSHOKE Esports | 54c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 5,341 | 31.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L | -390.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd616…91d6backed ex-RUBY | 76c | 34.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked ex-RUBY | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked ex-RUBY | 52c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 341 | 47.5%162 W · 179 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked CYBERSHOKE Esports | 44c | 25.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1,659 | 32.7%542 W · 1,117 L | -49.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed CYBERSHOKE Esports | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked ex-RUBY | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +12.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1b…4ea6backed CYBERSHOKE Esports | 65c | 23.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed ex-RUBY | 61c | 21.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 2,664 | 30.8%820 W · 1,844 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…ed2bbacked ex-RUBY | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed CYBERSHOKE Esports | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 702 | 42.2%296 W · 406 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stageex-RUBY won
- Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winnerex-RUBY won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: ex-RUBY (-1.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (+1.5)ex-RUBY won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.