Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a21a7c0ba9c6988e1178d3246ccaa436baf92a2865cb05d18ee814c0eb0034c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 1c | 1,017$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 906.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 27c | 888$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.52 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 637$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.89 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8438…02febacked Yes | 36c | 635.88$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.76 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 10c | 528.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 28c | 458$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.55 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 28c | 406.66$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.04 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 351.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 301.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 287.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 8c | 223.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 41c | 162.86$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.1 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972e…e926backed Yes | 35c | 142.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 49c | 141.94$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.92 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 33c | 138.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 41c | 132.63$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 129.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 129.82$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 40c | 112.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 103.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 56c | 101.29$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.66 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3db…bba6backed Yes | 39c | 100.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 67c | 98.16$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 12c | 93.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes | 62c | 93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…2a24backed Yes | 39c | 83.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 81.45$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 58c | 81$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 63c | 77.11$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 45c | 67.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 71c | 67.2$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…d420backed No | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 62.08$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 61.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 28c | 58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 74c | 54.88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked No | 46c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…80a0backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d64…e3fdbacked Yes | 21c | 48.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 61c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 26c | 47.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 31c | 46.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed Yes | 28c | 46.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 29c | 44.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 44.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a7…5b77backed Yes | 38c | 43.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b41…b5cebacked Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 36.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 41c | 34.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 62c | 33.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 74c | 30.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 69c | 30.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 62c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff4…88d2backed No | 79c | 27.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 55c | 25.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…a400backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 17.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 70c | 14.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.