Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc66bd2ac68fe0f07ddaffee811e1388445b7c1b19bf41c96fdbe5e6c29c767eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,970
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 28c | 640.82$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.91 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 447.01$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.06 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8438…02febacked Yes | 32c | 314.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bb…ec4fbacked Yes | 36c | 219.06$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.27 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 74c | 187.24$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.55 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 160.92$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 136$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 129.19$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 26c | 125.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 120.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0a13…72cebacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…80a0backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 69c | 91.73$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 30c | 80.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 36c | 71.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 67.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 70c | 61.91$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 59.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe296…8898backed Yes | 33c | 48.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 48.19$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcad1…7cf9backed No | 77c | 46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 66c | 44.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 69c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 26c | 39.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9282…cf25backed No | 72c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9b…3351backed Yes | 30c | 36.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc451…48e9backed No | 72c | 28.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 71c | 28.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 58c | 25.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 71c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 72c | 24.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…d420backed No | 76c | 19.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5989…4b87backed No | 72c | 18.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 71c | 15.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.