Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29c1662ca8fd5956a213ddb5fa030c0704e1e5adcd7af016040d627ef362a5f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 10c | 1,209$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.86 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed No | 7c | 961.89$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.93 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 22c | 848.64$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.84 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 637$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.28 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 5c | 373.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcad1…7cf9backed Yes | 72c | 312.42$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.05 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 4c | 308.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 7c | 251.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 17c | 251.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.55 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 18c | 225.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 9c | 208.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 18c | 194.59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.77 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 14c | 189.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 7c | 165.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 76c | 149.96$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.97 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972e…e926backed Yes | 24c | 146.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 79c | 120.19$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.24 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 10c | 104.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 20c | 100.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.18 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 21c | 95.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.71 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 93.95$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 22c | 89.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.92 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 74c | 84.47$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 19c | 80.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.28 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked No | 78c | 76.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 70.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 21c | 65.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 66c | 54.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 75c | 51.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x529d…b897backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes | 24c | 46.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 79c | 45.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 27c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 69c | 19.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…90a5backed No | 66c | 17.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 15.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked No | 80c | 15.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…cc2cbacked Yes | 80c | 15.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 68 | 94.1%64 W · 4 L | +12.7wins | +0.19per pick | 75cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…1fe2backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.