Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a6914525bace27e4517943f84cfb6bf1c209ebd9d2ccbede3918a4fdc4a3a10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arkansas Razorbacksof Arkansas Razorbacks, High Point Panthers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,376
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,376 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked High Point Panthers | 46c | 974.94$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.63 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 55c | 901.22$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.55 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfba…80ebbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 54c | 853.62$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.67 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked High Point Panthers | 45c | 812.94$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.82 | 462 | 46.5%215 W · 247 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 52c | 770.99$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.32 | 226 | 40.7%92 W · 134 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed High Point Panthers | 48c | 640.36$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.37 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ec…3db5backed High Point Panthers | 48c | 137.18$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.36 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed High Point Panthers | 51c | 95.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa78a…aba5backed High Point Panthers | 52c | 95.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…e6fdbacked High Point Panthers | 50c | 79.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 54c | 59.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 51c | 47.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 646 | 47.5%307 W · 339 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 54c | 45.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…fec0backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 58c | 40.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 249 | 51.8%129 W · 120 L | +19.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…e980backed High Point Panthers | 48c | 30.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 218 | 50.9%111 W · 107 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-4.5)this page
- High Point Panthers vs. Arkansas RazorbacksArkansas Razorbacks won
- High Point Panthers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 167.5Over won
- High Point Panthers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 168.5Over won
- High Point Panthers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 169.5Over won
- High Point Panthers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 170.5Over won
- High Point Panthers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 173.5Over won
- High Point Panthers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 176.5Over won
- High Point Panthers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 177.5Over won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-10.5)High Point Panthers won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-11.5)High Point Panthers won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-12.5)High Point Panthers won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-7.5)High Point Panthers won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-8.5)High Point Panthers won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-9.5)High Point Panthers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.