TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Inner Circle Esportsof Inner Circle Esports, FaZe
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$154,840
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$191,581

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $154,840 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 219 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked FaZe22c12,798$2,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,866.33,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed FaZe40c8,552$3,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,383.3557358.8%337 W · 236 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Inner Circle Esports57c4,506$2,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,944.951,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Inner Circle Esports62c3,406$2,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,279.031,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe9…c6dcbacked Inner Circle Esports60c2,949$1,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,192.865660.7%34 W · 22 L+0.2wins0.00per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed FaZe30c2,896$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$870.316,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked FaZe24c2,553$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.4975245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Inner Circle Esports58c2,375$1,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,008.841,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Inner Circle Esports63c2,204$1,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819.587047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed FaZe26c1,939$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.621,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed FaZe35c1,849$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.55,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5453…a834backed FaZe25c1,728$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.4431654.7%173 W · 143 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Inner Circle Esports72c1,605$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.441,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed FaZe64c1,584$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.8137445.7%171 W · 203 L-29.6wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8c14…d8fbbacked Inner Circle Esports76c1,501$1,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.4417357.2%99 W · 74 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked FaZe65c1,468$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$947.9735850.8%182 W · 176 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd20f…2f35backed Inner Circle Esports76c1,458$1,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.078750.6%44 W · 43 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Inner Circle Esports60c1,440$866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.61,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec7b…917ebacked Inner Circle Esports41c1,405$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826.327740.8%113 W · 164 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked FaZe50c1,376$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.435940.4%145 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a71…e454backed Inner Circle Esports38c1,270$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.2824944.6%111 W · 138 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Inner Circle Esports35c1,210$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786.6830726.4%81 W · 226 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Inner Circle Esports55c1,205$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.164,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed FaZe27c1,197$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.6731444.9%141 W · 173 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked FaZe32c1,111$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.581,57335.3%556 W · 1,017 L+22.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c3b…e573backed Inner Circle Esports76c999.99$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2403447.1%16 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed FaZe37c984.73$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.224,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6770…5bdfbacked FaZe52c939.14$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.517436.5%27 W · 47 L-8.9wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-39.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed Inner Circle Esports49c915.26$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.3741850%209 W · 209 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed FaZe63c900$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56746749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59c8…de83backed FaZe19c887.02$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.551855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3081…c666backed Inner Circle Esports38c838.29$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.744955.1%27 W · 22 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+37.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Inner Circle Esports62c816.32$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.282,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8db…6181backed Inner Circle Esports40c815.83$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.5955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid+3.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf092…4ebabacked FaZe62c787.65$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.3510947.7%52 W · 57 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d03…100ebacked FaZe64c760.3$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.7541069.3%284 W · 126 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x56de…bc32backed Inner Circle Esports58c754.98$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.935349.1%26 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdff5…7bd9backed FaZe39c742.73$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.674344.2%19 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed FaZe34c675.78$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.6261837.9%234 W · 384 L-22.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c2d…dd1ebacked Inner Circle Esports58c643.67$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.3839970.7%282 W · 117 L+38.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+14.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4134…11a4backed FaZe18c591.52$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.312352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaca0…9b86backed FaZe49c588.49$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.99834.7%34 W · 64 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7972…594fbacked FaZe58c584.24$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.278951.7%46 W · 43 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb963…3fa0backed FaZe60c575$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34550043%215 W · 285 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0198…6900backed Inner Circle Esports77c573.45$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.2475%3 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick78cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67c4…f0a4backed FaZe56c521.57$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.0813937.4%52 W · 87 L-8.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Inner Circle Esports60c478.41$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.192,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked FaZe21c476.3$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0225846.1%119 W · 139 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed FaZe20c476$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.21,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked FaZe39c475.93$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.653,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x606f…3564backed FaZe10c473$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.340%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Inner Circle Esports63c450.95$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.6339248.7%191 W · 201 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Inner Circle Esports36c450.28$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.1853746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb87…0335backed Inner Circle Esports41c446.07$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.1836554.8%200 W · 165 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Inner Circle Esports70c439.58$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.0540950.6%207 W · 202 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79df…31d6backed FaZe23c414.7$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.3827831.7%88 W · 190 L-1.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Inner Circle Esports44c400.45$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.5978348.4%379 W · 404 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked FaZe25c382$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.54645.7%21 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+25.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked FaZe32c377.96$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.72,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed Inner Circle Esports52c375.76$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.3649941.7%208 W · 291 L+2.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa79a…94d9backed FaZe30c349.92$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.311435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-38.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca33…70d9backed FaZe54c341.31$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.67520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-73.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x14fa…73f0backed Inner Circle Esports55c325.51$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.4810753.3%57 W · 50 L-0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ce5…9e1bbacked FaZe23c309.48$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.424431.8%14 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed Inner Circle Esports60c300.76$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.1755950.3%281 W · 278 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b3c…0518backed FaZe19c300.6$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.912619.2%5 W · 21 L-4.2wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-45.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x70d8…5d64backed FaZe48c299.99$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.9912452.4%65 W · 59 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed FaZe43c295.83$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.7718536.2%67 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ca2…5d25backed FaZe62c263.84$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.5817759.9%106 W · 71 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a73…a9c8backed FaZe56c261.79$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.0269635.3%246 W · 450 L-49.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb3c5…f095backed FaZe39c249.57$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.6760358.5%353 W · 250 L-12.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfaf…9206backed Inner Circle Esports39c247.03$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.6921246.2%98 W · 114 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x384d…d538backed FaZe61c235.1$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.4110951.4%56 W · 53 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked FaZe34c227.48$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.942,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Inner Circle Esports77c221.93$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.0451252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3989…0539backed FaZe25c217.45$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.369137.4%34 W · 57 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a57…968cbacked FaZe49c210$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.99443.6%41 W · 53 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked Inner Circle Esports79c209.17$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.087749.4%38 W · 39 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e5e…67c5backed FaZe48c203.53$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8630527.5%84 W · 221 L-17.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xae35…5dd3backed FaZe48c201.83$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8823940.2%96 W · 143 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6026…22dbbacked FaZe19c200.79$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa775…ab33backed FaZe47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.819554.4%106 W · 89 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56b3…2c42backed FaZe55c199.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9936749.3%181 W · 186 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf41a…f793backed Inner Circle Esports57c194.84$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.781266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde4b…3b7dbacked FaZe38c192.56$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.1731852.8%168 W · 150 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcae6…6a5ebacked Inner Circle Esports67c189.01$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.498762.1%54 W · 33 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Inner Circle Esports54c179.66$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.4138454.2%208 W · 176 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e2c…9642backed FaZe16c174$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8417444.3%77 W · 97 L+0.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked FaZe59c173$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.071,15748.2%558 W · 599 L+3.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39e2…040dbacked Inner Circle Esports44c162.15$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.5110045%45 W · 55 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed FaZe44c150.47$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0425042.8%107 W · 143 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa655…b10cbacked Inner Circle Esports54c150$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.52650%13 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed FaZe27c149.28$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.062,10216.8%353 W · 1,749 L-286.5wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-47.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xadaf…aefdbacked Inner Circle Esports40c148.09$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.8584037.9%318 W · 522 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked Inner Circle Esports67c147.03$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.5219540%78 W · 117 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8083…0b28backed FaZe37c144.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.653036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa019…c220backed FaZe26c143.33$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0921437.9%81 W · 133 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Inner Circle Esports36c142.17$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.9953444.9%240 W · 294 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf21d…922bbacked FaZe37c134.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8123056.1%129 W · 101 L-0.5wins0.00per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked FaZe27c122.62$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.515,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.