CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ad61b9b77c98cf465beb610fe426f640694407af4cd91a4d8d0286fb8685b5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- HOTUof HOTU, Infinite
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,356
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,356 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ebc…a33dbacked Infinite | 6c | 13,800$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.19 | 631 | 57.1%360 W · 271 L | +40.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked HOTU | 70c | 3,621$2,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.21 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…a9b3backed Infinite | 53c | 2,109$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.97 | 1,163 | 54.3%631 W · 532 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…4f76backed Infinite | 9c | 1,336$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.3 | 519 | 42.2%219 W · 300 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Infinite | 13c | 959.26$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.34 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffca…0b64backed HOTU | 45c | 749.97$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.48 | 521 | 50.3%262 W · 259 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Infinite | 23c | 724.38$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.74 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed HOTU | 80c | 713.91$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.78 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Infinite | 18c | 694.23$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.73 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x499f…b72bbacked Infinite | 39c | 674.38$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.95 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99d1…ee7abacked HOTU | 79c | 500$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb9…95c9backed Infinite | 13c | 424.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 547 | 32.2%176 W · 371 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb378…e4c0backed Infinite | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 383 | 12.8%49 W · 334 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Infinite | 24c | 396.51$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 2,221 | 41.3%917 W · 1,304 L | -22.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed HOTU | 51c | 336.51$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.99 | 1,038 | 39.9%414 W · 624 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…519dbacked Infinite | 49c | 329.39$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed HOTU | 69c | 305.46$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.48 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked Infinite | 33c | 299.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 240 | 38.3%92 W · 148 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked Infinite | 11c | 259$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dcb…50fcbacked Infinite | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…53d0backed Infinite | 54c | 232.14$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.72 | 213 | 46.9%100 W · 113 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Infinite | 54c | 230$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.2 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…4332backed Infinite | 49c | 213.12$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.43 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | -17.8wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…a142backed HOTU | 45c | 206$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.3 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked HOTU | 44c | 197.8$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.05 | 388 | 44.3%172 W · 216 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Infinite | 31c | 188.62$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.22 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked HOTU | 69c | 142.08$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Infinite | 55c | 137.61$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.69 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed HOTU | 50c | 125$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 608 | 38.2%232 W · 376 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked HOTU | 66c | 103$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 380 | 32.1%122 W · 258 L | -18.7wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked HOTU | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 919 | 45.8%421 W · 498 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Infinite | 57c | 88.92$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 353 | 41.6%147 W · 206 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Infinite | 33c | 85.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed HOTU | 53c | 65.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 1,319 | 44.2%583 W · 736 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed HOTU | 52c | 55.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Infinite | 50c | 51.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 807 | 41.3%333 W · 474 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Infinite | 28c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 2,776 | 37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L | -140.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc1…9a14backed HOTU | 45c | 30.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9307…9da3backed HOTU | 69c | 29.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 1,008 | 69.3%699 W · 309 L | +152.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…2b2fbacked HOTU | 59c | 29.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…c70bbacked HOTU | 54c | 24.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafee…1f64backed HOTU | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Infinite | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 514 | 46.9%241 W · 273 L | -22.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Infinite - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Infinite (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Play-InHOTU won
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Infinite - Map 2 WinnerHOTU won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: HOTU (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5)HOTU won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.