TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Phoenix Mercuryof Phoenix Mercury, Las Vegas Aces
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$87,408
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$91,552

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,408 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5375…aeeabacked Las Vegas Aces56c20,906$11,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,762.136851.5%35 W · 33 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4d3…c2f0backed Las Vegas Aces77c16,741$12,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,886.1220%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Phoenix Mercury19c8,453$1,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,839.8422748.5%110 W · 117 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Phoenix Mercury27c3,826$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,795.6455255.1%304 W · 248 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Phoenix Mercury35c2,961$1,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,922.2113538.5%52 W · 83 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Phoenix Mercury23c2,745$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,113.4350952.5%267 W · 242 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xacf8…e791backed Phoenix Mercury40c2,504$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,503.874829.2%14 W · 34 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed Phoenix Mercury21c2,000$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,579.972839.3%11 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Las Vegas Aces77c1,627$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,259.883842.1%16 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Phoenix Mercury32c1,538$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.7537850%189 W · 189 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Las Vegas Aces51c1,385$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.831,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Phoenix Mercury22c1,199$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.621656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+21.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Phoenix Mercury37c1,009$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.0812745.7%58 W · 69 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe65b…271bbacked Las Vegas Aces80c1,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80010249%50 W · 52 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Las Vegas Aces60c941$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.631043.2%134 W · 176 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Las Vegas Aces13c837.25$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.3136750.7%186 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6871…e9dcbacked Phoenix Mercury24c835.99$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.361850%9 W · 9 L+4.3wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+99.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Phoenix Mercury50c824.13$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.7819428.9%56 W · 138 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe6…a99fbacked Las Vegas Aces7c713.33$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.77908.9%8 W · 82 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8927…f5c6backed Phoenix Mercury18c670$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.413024.6%32 W · 98 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Las Vegas Aces19c656.82$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.819129.7%27 W · 64 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6b2…67febacked Las Vegas Aces56c656.01$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x012d…9db6backed Las Vegas Aces53c566.83$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.36per pick65cpaid-60.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Phoenix Mercury21c534$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.864438.6%17 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd81e…e3d0backed Las Vegas Aces76c510.57$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.8314452.8%76 W · 68 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Las Vegas Aces79c506.33$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40014944.3%66 W · 83 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x860d…3c72backed Phoenix Mercury21c477.7$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.384667.4%31 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+17.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Phoenix Mercury32c409.73$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.712552%13 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0844…f46abacked Phoenix Mercury80c372.23$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.41457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f34…ed6abacked Las Vegas Aces5c372.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.391747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Las Vegas Aces62c360.42$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.736237.1%23 W · 39 L-6.6wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-33.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Las Vegas Aces34c342.11$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.6385158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6abc…bd1bbacked Las Vegas Aces79c319.39$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.32333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed Phoenix Mercury21c299.99$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Phoenix Mercury33c297.63$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.5913358.6%78 W · 55 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Phoenix Mercury21c296.41$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.29044.4%40 W · 50 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2a0…1f3dbacked Las Vegas Aces39c248.96$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.22633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc0…099dbacked Las Vegas Aces40c241.5$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabe0…5adbbacked Phoenix Mercury76c230.26$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.268061.3%49 W · 31 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed Las Vegas Aces61c229.67$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.735149%25 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Phoenix Mercury62c228.84$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.6436454.1%197 W · 167 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed Phoenix Mercury23c212.87$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.916758.2%39 W · 28 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3c2…5509backed Phoenix Mercury23c212.87$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.914252.4%22 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+24.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Phoenix Mercury23c199.97$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.9821337.6%80 W · 133 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+18%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Phoenix Mercury26c198.07$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.518844.1%83 W · 105 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f2a…e8a9backed Las Vegas Aces19c181.25$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a63…ceabbacked Phoenix Mercury24c151.35$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.119146.2%42 W · 49 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f64…ba01backed Phoenix Mercury35c144.69$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.1110039%39 W · 61 L+0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Las Vegas Aces41c140.58$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1231847.8%152 W · 166 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdeef…cd8abacked Las Vegas Aces47c135.07$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Phoenix Mercury23c134.78$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.782152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+21.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Phoenix Mercury50c128.15$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.7161042.5%259 W · 351 L-31.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc61d…3933backed Las Vegas Aces24c125.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf17a…2723backed Phoenix Mercury23c124.26$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.68944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+47.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Phoenix Mercury25c111.62$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.492339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+39.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2827…64f6backed Las Vegas Aces79c111.4$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.8666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid+6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Phoenix Mercury47c106.09$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.8119646.9%92 W · 104 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44d3…f4ffbacked Phoenix Mercury22c102$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.22837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid+13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3109…ff47backed Phoenix Mercury37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee11…19a9backed Phoenix Mercury23c97.87$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.362548%12 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x78a0…3a2fbacked Phoenix Mercury24c86.49$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.931050%5 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+86.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x94a5…4eb8backed Las Vegas Aces79c80$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.2450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Phoenix Mercury21c75$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.9813745.3%62 W · 75 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eb4…9cb8backed Phoenix Mercury20c67$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.291450%7 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Phoenix Mercury78c64.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.15863.8%37 W · 21 L-0.2wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea87…8066backed Phoenix Mercury22c59.09$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.091136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Las Vegas Aces47c56.69$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6310349.5%51 W · 52 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0a1…73dbbacked Phoenix Mercury21c51.95$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+142.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ee6…fe26backed Phoenix Mercury20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.24per pick39cpaid+64.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2f46…85c0backed Las Vegas Aces78c48.05$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.613345.5%15 W · 18 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-18.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Las Vegas Aces44c47.84$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2389349.4%441 W · 452 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a6e…9bc5backed Las Vegas Aces80c47.83$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.261850%9 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9bd…bb13backed Las Vegas Aces71c38.18$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-62.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x659f…c105backed Phoenix Mercury71c35.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.12650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Phoenix Mercury37c34.39$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.796127.9%17 W · 44 L-10.1wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-42.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xea58…b635backed Las Vegas Aces46c28$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.94047.5%19 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6d5…f2c6backed Las Vegas Aces75c27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Phoenix Mercury76c27$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.481764.7%11 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a37…4daebacked Las Vegas Aces76c26.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c94…5a2bbacked Las Vegas Aces77c19.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick67cpaid-56.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ef1…5acabacked Las Vegas Aces76c18.42$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145463%34 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1337…6049backed Phoenix Mercury80c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4350…4bbabacked Phoenix Mercury79c13.58$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.82771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+102.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.