NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Suns: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b38cb94003b7f277e00ad5ef3386d0c68a49e905271276582a93fe707305b96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 54c | 9,224$5,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,014.9 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 8,321$3,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,424.89 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 52c | 5,953$3,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,094.97 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 45c | 3,359$1,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,847.45 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Over | 52c | 2,596$1,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,347.36 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 48c | 2,538$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,317.97 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Over | 50c | 1,526$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 56c | 976.2$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 950.92$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.97 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 51c | 945$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.95 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 48c | 452.92$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.52 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 45c | 367$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.85 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 48c | 242.6$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.77 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 52c | 202$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.77 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Over | 52c | 182$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.64 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Under | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 143$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.52 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 51c | 142$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.42 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 46c | 114.56$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.91 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 48c | 114$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.03 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Over | 53c | 111.43$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 762 | 50.4%384 W · 378 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3187…896dbacked Under | 46c | 97.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 55c | 89.09$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 48c | 64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Under | 48c | 57.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 222 | 47.3%105 W · 117 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 46c | 39.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 47c | 38.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Over | 51c | 25.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d5…348cbacked Over | 52c | 24.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Suns: O/U 228.5this page
- Spread: Suns (-13.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-14.5)Suns won
- Wizards vs. SunsSuns won
- Wizards vs. Suns: O/U 227.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Suns: O/U 229.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Suns: O/U 230.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.