NBA · resolved market
Spread: Suns (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3266b221822db3321ca589e8520d6a5d404b6af9c990c73ebb7de0346c46f54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Suns, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 50c | 6,563$3,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,275.23 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5227…f9bdbacked Suns | 50c | 5,428$2,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,713.76 | 102 | 52.9%54 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Suns | 49c | 4,850$2,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,473.5 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Suns | 49c | 4,317$2,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,201.67 | 584 | 49.7%290 W · 294 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Suns | 59c | 4,011$2,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,652.14 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Suns | 50c | 2,370$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185.02 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Suns | 52c | 2,179$1,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.91 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…bd7dbacked Wizards | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Wizards | 52c | 1,554$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.55 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Wizards | 47c | 1,407$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.28 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Wizards | 48c | 1,231$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.79 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Wizards | 46c | 1,169$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.76 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Wizards | 50c | 849$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.5 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Wizards | 49c | 820.64$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Wizards | 50c | 812$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Wizards | 48c | 709.47$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.06 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Suns | 51c | 699.68$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.44 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Suns | 53c | 653$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.1 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…585abacked Suns | 50c | 632.94$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.53 | 89 | 61.8%55 W · 34 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Suns | 49c | 619.84$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.15 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Wizards | 39c | 535$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.95 | 619 | 39.6%245 W · 374 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Suns | 48c | 521.4$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.13 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Suns | 49c | 343.62$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.25 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…a250backed Suns | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 344 | 47.4%163 W · 181 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad44…db14backed Wizards | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Wizards | 49c | 282$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.52 | 469 | 40.3%189 W · 280 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Suns | 52c | 239.89$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.76 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…df76backed Suns | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 470 | 48.5%228 W · 242 L | -18.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Wizards | 23c | 200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 81 | 56.8%46 W · 35 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Wizards | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 625 | 39.4%246 W · 379 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Suns | 52c | 195$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…76e9backed Suns | 49c | 194.62$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Suns | 52c | 154.81$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.81 | 311 | 51.1%159 W · 152 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Suns | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Suns | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Wizards | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Wizards | 43c | 132.03$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 487 | 40.7%198 W · 289 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…0320backed Wizards | 53c | 130.94$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Suns | 49c | 130.73$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.15 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Suns | 52c | 108$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Wizards | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Suns | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Suns | 49c | 83.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Wizards | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Suns | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1421…51d1backed Suns | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Wizards | 51c | 66.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Wizards | 35c | 58.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Wizards | 50c | 57.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Suns | 50c | 56.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Suns | 52c | 54.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcf…6b81backed Wizards | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Suns | 39c | 47.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Suns | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x640f…4cc0backed Wizards | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -11.2wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Wizards | 50c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Wizards | 50c | 40.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e63…2d79backed Suns | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Wizards | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef2…6e74backed Suns | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -8.2wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…5bb9backed Suns | 50c | 39.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Wizards | 50c | 38.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733e…c558backed Wizards | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Suns | 49c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Suns | 50c | 32.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…e14fbacked Suns | 55c | 30.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Wizards | 50c | 30.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Suns | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Suns | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 421 | 43.7%184 W · 237 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Wizards | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 599 | 48.4%290 W · 309 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc29d…3352backed Suns | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 159 | 59.1%94 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d2…4abfbacked Wizards | 50c | 22.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Wizards | 47c | 21.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Wizards | 49c | 21.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 522 | 46.6%243 W · 279 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a4…5f78backed Suns | 52c | 20.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Suns | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…1448backed Suns | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6c…9a1dbacked Wizards | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Suns (-14.5)this page
- Spread: Suns (-13.5)Suns won
- Wizards vs. SunsSuns won
- Wizards vs. Suns: O/U 227.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Suns: O/U 228.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Suns: O/U 229.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Suns: O/U 230.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.