NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Suns: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5d6f827f883e7f84ef6c965f926905506ffebb2a0a5522114dc331849366b67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $494,315
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $494,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $494,315 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Over | 51c | 362,951$184,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184,475.52 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc31d…4ebebacked Under | 49c | 150,000$73,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76,500 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 49c | 61,414$30,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,121.14 | 596 | 53.4%318 W · 278 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 49c | 49,488$24,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,239.01 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Under | 50c | 32,018$16,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,009 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 49c | 25,000$12,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,750 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 50c | 19,532$9,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,811.12 | 297 | 48.1%143 W · 154 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Under | 52c | 18,115$9,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,695.37 | 155 | 45.8%71 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 50c | 18,004$9,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,002.15 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 14,986$7,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,488.56 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9c…74b3backed Under | 50c | 14,000$6,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,040 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 50c | 12,100$6,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,050 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 11,724$5,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,927.75 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…57eebacked Over | 52c | 9,612$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 9,565$4,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,976.36 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Over | 49c | 8,163$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Over | 48c | 6,511$3,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,125.24 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 51c | 4,300$2,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,107 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Under | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 172 | 50%86 W · 86 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4366…c73ebacked Under | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…2a44backed Under | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92c8…933fbacked Over | 48c | 3,990$1,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,915 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Under | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,469.98 | 379 | 44.3%168 W · 211 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Over | 49c | 2,581$1,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,271 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 2,500$1,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.55 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 49c | 1,747$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.78 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 53c | 1,038$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.74 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Over | 49c | 851.35$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.16 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Under | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 717.06$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.36 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 49c | 713.13$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.17 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Under | 52c | 509$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 161 | 39.8%64 W · 97 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 166 | 33.7%56 W · 110 L | -11.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07bc…393abacked Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 49c | 471.85$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.39 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fc…bcdfbacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Over | 51c | 353.04$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.05 | 762 | 50.4%384 W · 378 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 49c | 260$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.4 | 502 | 41.2%207 W · 295 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 49c | 244.12$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1969…a09cbacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a39…031abacked Under | 50c | 148$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 48c | 144.47$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.35 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…c55fbacked Under | 51c | 139.02$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.72 | 147 | 54.4%80 W · 67 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Under | 50c | 120.05$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Over | 49c | 102$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 50c | 94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc29d…3352backed Under | 57c | 91$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 159 | 59.1%94 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ab…c3acbacked Under | 50c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…6759backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -16.1wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -30%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed Under | 50c | 45.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 166 | 58.4%97 W · 69 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 52c | 43.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…f083backed Over | 50c | 41.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 43c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 50c | 33.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 244 | 54.1%132 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Over | 49c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5590backed Under | 50c | 32.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 180 | 51.1%92 W · 88 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…e166backed Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 187 | 57.2%107 W · 80 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…5cc6backed Over | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 421 | 43.7%184 W · 237 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked Over | 49c | 23.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…7db6backed Under | 51c | 23.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 120 | 62.5%75 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Over | 49c | 22.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20c8…6354backed Under | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 448 | 44.2%198 W · 250 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Suns: O/U 230.5this page
- Spread: Suns (-13.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-14.5)Suns won
- Wizards vs. SunsSuns won
- Wizards vs. Suns: O/U 227.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Suns: O/U 228.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Suns: O/U 229.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.