NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Suns: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1cf736e7ecca700f0990fc8fdbfe790076a323838aa99a870e132e5458e4fa1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $148,397
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $151,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,397 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Under | 45c | 110,942$49,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61,018.05 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 55c | 105,965$58,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58,365.31 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2107…8f4cbacked Over | 54c | 18,430$9,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,908.33 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 47c | 12,628$5,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,654.66 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 55c | 8,288$4,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,533.34 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 43c | 4,218$1,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,404.26 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b6…ac69backed Over | 50c | 1,742$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Under | 54c | 1,375$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.5 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 45c | 1,340$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.01 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Over | 50c | 1,080$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 238 | 45%107 W · 131 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 1,020$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.17 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 45c | 815$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.55 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 55c | 800$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 54c | 794.51$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.48 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 55c | 730$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.16 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Over | 58c | 360$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.8 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 321.72$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.74 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 45c | 177.78$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.78 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 43c | 157.76$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.84 | 161 | 39.8%64 W · 97 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed Over | 52c | 111.01$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.51 | 166 | 58.4%97 W · 69 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3461…4629backed Over | 24c | 105.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Under | 80c | 100.13$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc29d…3352backed Over | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 159 | 59.1%94 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca9…a291backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Over | 56c | 89.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Over | 56c | 81.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 244 | 54.1%132 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5590backed Over | 56c | 77.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 180 | 51.1%92 W · 88 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x130c…782cbacked Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 144 | 20.1%29 W · 115 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 44c | 33.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 53c | 30.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 47c | 30.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20c8…6354backed Over | 56c | 17.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Suns: O/U 227.5this page
- Spread: Suns (-13.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-14.5)Suns won
- Wizards vs. SunsSuns won
- Wizards vs. Suns: O/U 228.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Suns: O/U 229.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Suns: O/U 230.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.