NBA · resolved market
Spread: Suns (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x623632aa0835d09b180db89eeb6b167f3c5db05b9f748b5014f9f87e8b53ebfa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Suns, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7caf…058bbacked Suns | 53c | 23,455$12,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,023.81 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Wizards | 47c | 7,483$3,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,516.91 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Wizards | 47c | 5,595$2,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,629.53 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Wizards | 48c | 1,080$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.39 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Wizards | 45c | 951.95$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.95 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Suns | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.09 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Wizards | 47c | 553.19$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Wizards | 47c | 550$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.5 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Suns | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Suns | 53c | 496.49$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.35 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e2…8e9ebacked Wizards | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Suns | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wizards | 30c | 297.23$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f3…0d57backed Suns | 53c | 273.58$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.58 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Wizards | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…76e9backed Suns | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 44c | 170.44$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.71 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Suns | 48c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Wizards | 46c | 139.21$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.03 | 382 | 48.7%186 W · 196 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Wizards | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Suns | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Wizards | 48c | 95.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Suns | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Suns | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Wizards | 46c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 479 | 48.6%233 W · 246 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Suns | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…97dfbacked Suns | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9058…a2c2backed Wizards | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Suns | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Wizards | 47c | 72.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d90…cf08backed Wizards | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 199 | 40.7%81 W · 118 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…8ef9backed Wizards | 46c | 54.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Wizards | 53c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Suns | 56c | 47.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Wizards | 51c | 46.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x909b…6a0dbacked Wizards | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Suns | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 99 | 57.6%57 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Wizards | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb986…d032backed Wizards | 47c | 29.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Suns | 54c | 24.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x911d…2438backed Suns | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Wizards | 53c | 19.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Suns | 56c | 18.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Suns (-13.5)this page
- Spread: Suns (-14.5)Suns won
- Wizards vs. SunsSuns won
- Wizards vs. Suns: O/U 227.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Suns: O/U 228.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Suns: O/U 229.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Suns: O/U 230.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.