NFL · resolved market
Vikings vs. Browns: O/U 35.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b63808e516a0812627a32b6e6a5f441e4a3f00cfc15f139a18c470b1e9d91ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Over | 51c | 13,723$6,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,788.77 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,900 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Under | 49c | 8,309$4,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,085.49 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 49c | 6,200$3,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,038 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1e…88d5backed Under | 51c | 4,298$2,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,191.82 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…99ffbacked Over | 51c | 2,353$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,153 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Under | 49c | 2,030$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.7 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Under | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Under | 49c | 1,490$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.2 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Under | 49c | 1,015$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.35 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Under | 51c | 822.43$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Under | 50c | 764$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -7.0wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -48%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 49c | 588$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.88 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc5…c31fbacked Over | 49c | 530.34$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.47 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.2 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Under | 51c | 420.13$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.27 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 48c | 405.2$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.5 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68ce…d06dbacked Under | 50c | 350$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63f3…c262backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Over | 53c | 188.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.75 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Over | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 46c | 117.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.26 | 246 | 52%128 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…3b9abacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 47c | 91.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5037…4630backed Under | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8926…5aacbacked Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 177 | 41.8%74 W · 103 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…d132backed Over | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -5.8wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x781e…df11backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Vikings vs. Browns: O/U 35.5this page
- Spread: Browns (-3.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Vikings (-3.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Vikings (-4.5)Browns won
- Vikings vs. BrownsVikings won
- Vikings vs. Browns: O/U 36.5Over won
- Vikings vs. Browns: O/U 42.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.