Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 22-23°F on January 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bafa03a43c8fa004246ee42ea5fe153686355e9a08de5b7091eb30b3219ae82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,149
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e8a…668ebacked Yes | 2c | 4,050$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e58…4668backed Yes | 2c | 4,050$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c64…348fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +476.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…f596backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…5410backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…1d80backed Yes | 38c | 927.98$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.05 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d38…824cbacked Yes | 80c | 853.18$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.58 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed Yes | 8c | 650$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf948…fb0bbacked Yes | 73c | 500.9$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f6…de59backed Yes | 52c | 461.39$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.52 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 42c | 418.22$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.41 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x33df…8988backed No | 53c | 329.79$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.75 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec95…7332backed Yes | 59c | 300.43$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.6 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 46c | 283.91$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.4 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 20c | 228.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.44 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…9b1abacked No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0900…3e1dbacked Yes | 36c | 180$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 50c | 173.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 27c | 170.57$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.05 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 39c | 156.34$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.41 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 50c | 149.69$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 30c | 118.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.36 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab75…8e17backed No | 36c | 116.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.93 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 46c | 112.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…600dbacked No | 57c | 106.75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 47c | 105.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 45c | 100.47$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.79 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc21b…31d1backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 42c | 98.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb7…5d7bbacked No | 35c | 98.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.79 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e90…6783backed No | 55c | 95.35$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 54c | 86.69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 78.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed Yes | 56c | 77.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…537cbacked Yes | 52c | 76.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7288…42a3backed Yes | 80c | 72.5$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 40c | 71.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 50c | 59.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 31c | 57.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 38c | 57.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…f81dbacked No | 38c | 56.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed No | 54c | 55.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 49.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…e770backed No | 50c | 48.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0df1…81c4backed Yes | 70c | 46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 53c | 43.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9614…67fdbacked Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde76…8992backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 46c | 39.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…30b5backed No | 54c | 37.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…9f27backed No | 62c | 35.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 77c | 33.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…be2dbacked Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 53c | 31.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c45…7aa4backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 48c | 31.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…e1d0backed Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 64c | 29.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed Yes | 51c | 27.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23c…e889backed No | 55c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 53 | 71.7%38 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02bd…3c32backed Yes | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed No | 48c | 22.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6c…00a8backed Yes | 54c | 20.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…7da2backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…c34fbacked Yes | 69c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee75…d92fbacked Yes | 58c | 17.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 22-23°F on January 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 17°F or below on January 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 28°F or higher on January 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 18-19°F on January 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 20-21°F on January 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 24-25°F on January 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on January 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.