Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 24-25°F on January 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba16c17ac1e503df680b60b9310bc1f6d593993afdc979fd0484db5622ce8b6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 13c | 789.08$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.51 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d38…824cbacked Yes | 60c | 623.04$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.38 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…1d80backed Yes | 29c | 512.97$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.66 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…668ebacked No | 8c | 449.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…8cbcbacked Yes | 75c | 441.87$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.62 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 28c | 407.47$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.23 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec95…7332backed Yes | 31c | 381.73$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.19 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 15c | 307.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 232.44$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 30c | 208.91$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.4 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…3dccbacked Yes | 32c | 200$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed No | 69c | 199.99$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.99 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 199.64$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.82 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 30c | 169.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.6 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 24c | 146.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.32 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe045…3f72backed Yes | 28c | 139.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 28c | 123.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.59 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.2 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 20c | 118.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.27 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf948…fb0bbacked No | 19c | 105.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 31c | 87.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.25 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 87.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.02 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 80c | 81.89$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…0685backed Yes | 18c | 79.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.52 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f6…de59backed No | 30c | 76.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed No | 70c | 75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…e770backed No | 70c | 70.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0c…ced7backed Yes | 23c | 69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +268.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 59.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…59f9backed No | 75c | 57.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b43…1894backed Yes | 36c | 54.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 29c | 54.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed Yes | 37c | 49.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…3757backed Yes | 67c | 44.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4f3abacked Yes | 56c | 43.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 29c | 42.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes | 71c | 41.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 33c | 41.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde76…8992backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 70c | 39.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x81f4…6a3ebacked Yes | 45c | 39.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32e…7f7bbacked No | 73c | 37.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 67c | 36.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 40c | 33.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…9f27backed No | 78c | 30.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…f481backed Yes | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 68c | 29.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc27…04b8backed No | 71c | 27.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…c127backed Yes | 66c | 26.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 59c | 24.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7b…f9a1backed No | 70c | 22.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 66c | 18.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4652…ae3ebacked No | 71c | 18.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…30b5backed No | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d3…bd33backed No | 71c | 14.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x776d…01fabacked No | 70c | 14.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 71c | 14.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30cc…e8dbbacked No | 70c | 14.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x819b…dd91backed No | 71c | 14.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d8d…692abacked No | 71c | 14.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 24-25°F on January 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 17°F or below on January 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 28°F or higher on January 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 18-19°F on January 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 20-21°F on January 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 22-23°F on January 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on January 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.