Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bef2b9d1ea4949c46b0a246241b355f2c3fe96bbb1c8ab6e990a614f47aea22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80c2…561cbacked Yes | 7c | 3,560$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 9c | 797.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.22 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9d…5954backed Yes | 2c | 712.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 17c | 683.11$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.44 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…0fb2backed Yes | 4c | 559.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 119 | 20.2%24 W · 95 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed Yes | 13c | 509.41$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.12 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 3c | 500.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef4…9729backed Yes | 23c | 446.52$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.31 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 4c | 316.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 15c | 250$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4931…6396backed Yes | 4c | 249.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d3…03b5backed Yes | 10c | 202.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 14c | 201.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 199.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…b44bbacked Yes | 8c | 168.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 79c | 161.21$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 8c | 151.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63cf…9e7cbacked Yes | 23c | 135$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a1…89f9backed Yes | 17c | 115.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 100.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…83aabacked Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 13c | 99.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 15c | 79.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 20c | 77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a90…2df4backed No | 79c | 72.21$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98ed…0711backed Yes | 25c | 69.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed No | 80c | 67.57$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…b498backed No | 73c | 61.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…5b32backed Yes | 21c | 54.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…f6c3backed Yes | 52c | 38.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 76c | 31.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 20.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…c693backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +15.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x029c…5137backed No | 77c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on January 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or higher on January 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C or below on January 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.